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The causal link between Polish stock market and key macroeconomic aggregates

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  • Gurgul, Henryk
  • Lach, Łukasz

Abstract

This paper with the application of linear, nonlinear and long–run Granger causality tests, examines the causal links between the main Polish market price index (WIG) of the Warsaw Stock Exchange and four macroeconomic aggregates, namely the value of sold industrial production, the unemployment rate, the interest rate and the rate of inflation using monthly data for the period from January 1998 to June 2008. We found a bidirectional linear causal relationship between the stock market index and sold industrial production and strong evidence of linear and nonlinear Granger causality from changes in the interest rate to fluctuations in the stock market index. Furthermore, all examined macroeconomic variables were found to have a long-run causal influence on the performance of the stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2010. "The causal link between Polish stock market and key macroeconomic aggregates," MPRA Paper 52250, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52250
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2012. "Technological progress and economic growth: evidence from Poland," MPRA Paper 52279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2012. "The electricity consumption versus economic growth of the Polish economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 500-510.
    3. Henryk Gurgul & £ukasz Lach, 2012. "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Poland in Transition: Causality Analysis," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(4), pages 347-367, August.
    4. Lukasz Lach, 2011. "Impact of hard coal usage for metal production on economic growth of Poland," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 9, pages 103-120.
    5. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, lukasz, 2011. "The role of coal consumption in the economic growth of the Polish economy in transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2088-2099, April.
    6. Lach, Łukasz, 2014. "Oil usage, gas consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Poland," MPRA Paper 52253, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Lach, Łukasz, 2010. "Fixed capital and long run economic growth: evidence from Poland," MPRA Paper 52280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Camilleri, Silvio John & Scicluna, Nicolanne & Bai, Ye, 2019. "Do stock markets lead or lag macroeconomic variables? Evidence from select European countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 170-186.
    9. Henryk Gurgul & Lukasz Lach, 2011. "The interdependence between energy consumption and economic growth in the Polish economy in the last decade," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 9, pages 25-48.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock market; macroeconomic aggregates; cointegration; linear and nonlinear causality; market efficienc;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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