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The role of coal consumption in the economic growth of the Polish economy in transition


  • Gurgul, Henryk
  • Lach, Łukasz


The main goal of this paper is an analysis of the causal links between quarterly coal consumption in the Polish economy and GDP. For the sake of accurate computation an additional variable – employment – was also taken into account. Computations conducted for the period Q1 2000 to Q4 2009 by means of recent causality techniques confirmed the neutrality of hard coal usage with respect to economic growth. On the other hand, calculations for the pairs lignite–GDP and total coal consumption–GDP showed the existence of a significant nonlinear causality from coal usage to economic growth. This is clear evidence for claiming that lignite plays an important role in the economic growth of the Polish economy. Furthermore, each coal–related variable was found to have a nonlinear causal impact on employment. Because of the relatively short length of available time series we additionally applied bootstrap critical values. The empirical results computed by both methods did not exhibit significant differences. These results have important policy implications. In general, our findings support the hypothesis that closing hard coal mines in Poland should have no significant repercussions on economic growth. However, this does not seem to be true for lignite mines.

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  • Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2011. "The role of coal consumption in the economic growth of the Polish economy in transition," MPRA Paper 52235, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52235

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    2. Henryk Gurgul & Lukasz Lach, 2012. "Two deficits and economic growth: case of CEE countries in transition," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 12, pages 79-108.
    3. Henryk Gurgul & Lukasz Lach, 2011. "The impact of regional disparities on economic growth," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 2, pages 17-43.
    4. Kasman, Adnan & Duman, Yavuz Selman, 2015. "CO2 emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: A panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 97-103.
    5. Henryk Gurgul & £ukasz Lach, 2012. "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Poland in Transition: Causality Analysis," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(4), pages 347-367, August.
    6. Ozcan, Burcu, 2013. "The nexus between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Middle East countries: A panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1138-1147.
    7. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach, 2011. "The Nexus between Improvements in Economic Freedom and Growth: Evidence from CEE Countries in Transition," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 3(3), pages 133-168, September.
    8. Korski, Jacek & Tobór–Osadnik, Katarzyna & Wyganowska, Małgorzata, 2016. "Reasons of problems of the polish hard coal mining in connection with restructuring changes in the period 1988–2014," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 25-31.
    9. Bildirici, Melike E. & Bakirtas, Tahsin, 2014. "The relationship among oil, natural gas and coal consumption and economic growth in BRICTS (Brazil, Russian, India, China, Turkey and South Africa) countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 134-144.
    10. Yuhuan Sun & Qian Li & Ting Chen & Xiaoai Jia, 2015. "Dynamic Factor Analysis of Trends in Temporal–Spatial Patterns of China’s Coal Consumption," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(11), pages 1-17, November.
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    12. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika, 2014. "Energy consumption and economic growth in the light of meeting the targets of energy policy in the EU: The bootstrap panel Granger causality approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 118-129.
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    15. Badera, Jarosław & Kocoń, Paweł, 2014. "Local community opinions regarding the socio-environmental aspects of lignite surface mining: Experiences from central Poland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 507-516.
    16. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2011. "The nexus between economic freedom and growth: Evidence from CEE countries in transition," MPRA Paper 37434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jonek Kowalska, Izabela, 2015. "Challenges for long-term industry restructuring in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin: What has Polish coal mining achieved and failed from a twenty-year perspective?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 135-149.

    More about this item


    energy consumption; economic growth; Granger causality;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General


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