Causality analysis between public expenditure and economic growth of Polish economy in last decade
This paper investigates the causal links between different kinds of budgetary expenditure and the economic growth of Poland. The empirical analysis was based on both the linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests and the aim was to evaluate the applicability of Wagner’s Law and contrasting theory formulated by Keynes. We based our research on aggregate and disaggregate quarterly data with the sub–division of public expenditure on human resources (HR), physical resources (PR), net interest payment (NIP) and other remaining budgetary expenditure (OTHER) for the period Q1 2000 to Q3 2008. Linear causality analysis showed that relation between total budgetary expenditure and economic growth is consistent with Keynesian theory. However, for the examined sub–categories of expenditure mixed results were reported supporting Keynesian theory (NIP), Wagner’s Law (OTHER) or none of them (HR and PR). Results of nonlinear causality analysis performed for unfiltered data also provided some support for Keynesian theory (HR and OTHER). However, after GARCH(1,1)–filtration of data nonlinear causality was not reported in any case.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mantalos Panagiotis, 2000. "A Graphical Investigation of the Size and Power of the Granger-Causality Tests in Integrated-Cointegrated VAR Systems," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, April.
- Diks Cees & Panchenko Valentyn, 2005.
"A Note on the Hiemstra-Jones Test for Granger Non-causality,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,
De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-9, June.
- Diks, C.G.H. & Panchenko, V., 2004. "A note on the Hiemstra-Jones test for Granger non-causality," CeNDEF Working Papers 04-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Hansen, Paul & King, Alan, 1998. "Health care expenditure and GDP: panel data unit root test results--comment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 377-381, June.
- McCoskey, Suzanne K. & Selden, Thomas M., 1998. "Health care expenditures and GDP: panel data unit root test results," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 369-376, June.
- Biswas, Basudeb & Ram, Rati, 1986. "Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 361-372, January.
- Henfryk Gurgul & lukasz Lach, 2009. "Linear versus nonlinear causalityfor dax companies," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 3, pages 27-46.
- Asteriou, D. & Agiomirgianakis, G. M., 2001. "Human capital and economic growth: Time series evidence from Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 481-489, July.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Higher Education, Real Income and Real Investment in China: Evidence From Granger Causality Tests," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 107-125.
- Deger, Saadet & Sen, Somnath, 1983. "Military expenditure, spin-off and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1-2), pages 67-83.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Hitiris, Theo & Posnett, John, 1992. "The determinants and effects of health expenditure in developed countries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 173-181, August.
- Reitschuler, Gerhard & Loening, Josef L., 2005. "Modeling the Defense-Growth Nexus in Guatemala," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 513-526, March.
- An-Sing Chen & James Wuh Lin, 2004. "Cointegration and detectable linear and nonlinear causality: analysis using the London Metal Exchange lead contract," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(11), pages 1157-1167.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Park, Wan Kyu, 1996. "Wagner's Law vs. Keynesian Paradigm: The Korean Experience," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 51(1), pages 71-91.
- Hansen, Paul & King, Alan, 1996. "The determinants of health care expenditure: A cointegration approach," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 127-137, February.
- Tsangyao Chang & Wenshwo Fang & Li-Fang Wen & Chwenchi Liu, 2001. "Defence spending, economic growth and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan and mainland China, 1952-1995," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1289-1299.
- Joerding, Wayne, 1986. "Economic growth and defense spending : Granger Causality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 35-40, April.
- Kalyoncu, Huseyin & Yucel, Fatih, 2005. "An analytical approach on defense expenditure and economic growth: the case of Turkey and Greece," MPRA Paper 4262, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Baljeet Singh, 2007. "Modelling The Relationship Between Defense Spending And Economic Growth For The Fiji Islands," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 391-401.
- Landau, Daniel, 1996. "Is one of the 'peace dividends' negative? Military expenditure and economic growth in the wealthy OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 183-195.
- Pin-Huang Chou & Guofu Zhou, 2006. "Using Bootstrap to Test Portfolio Efficiency," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(2), pages 217-249, November.
- Saunders, Peter, 1985. "Public Expenditure and Economic Performance in OECD Countries," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 1-21, February.
- Francis In & Chris Doucouliagos, 1997. "Human capital formation and US economic growth: a causality analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(5), pages 329-331.
- Nancy Devlin & Paul Hansen, 2001. "Health care spending and economic output: Granger causality," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 561-564.
- Francesco Caselli, 1999. "Technological Revolutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 78-102, March.
- Nagarajan, P & Spears, A, 1990. "An Econometric Test of Wagner's Law for Mexico: A Re-examination," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 45(1), pages 165-168.
- de Meulemeester, Jean-Luc & Rochat, Denis, 1995. "A causality analysis of the link between higher education and economic development," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 351-361, December.
- Jean Luc De Meulemeester & Denis Rochat, 1995. "A causality analysis of the link between higher education and economic development," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/1573, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2006. "Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(13), pages 1489-1500.
- Benoit, Emile, 1978. "Growth and Defense in Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(2), pages 271-280, January.
- J. Paul Dunne & Ron Smith & Dirk Willenbockel, 2005. "Models Of Military Expenditure And Growth: A Critical Review," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 449-461.
- J Paul Dunne & Ron Smith & Dirk Willenbockel, 2004. "Models of Military Expenditure and Growth: A Critical Review," Working Papers 0408, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
- Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
- Diks, C.G.H. & Panchenko, V., 2004. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," CeNDEF Working Papers 04-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Jennifer Roberts, 1999. "Sensitivity of elasticity estimates for OECD health care spending: analysis of a dynamic heterogeneous data field," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(5), pages 459-472.
- Blomqvist, A. G. & Carter, R. A. L., 1997. "Is health care really a luxury?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 207-229, April.
- Blomqvist, A.G. & Carter, R.A.L., 1993. "Is Health Care Really a Luxury?," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9311, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
- Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. " Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-1664, December.
- Lim, David, 1983. "Another Look at Growth and Defense in Less Developed Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(2), pages 377-384, January.
- Chien-Hsun Chen, 1993. "Causality between Defence Spending and Economic Growth: The Case of Mainland China," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 20(6), pages 37-43, October.
- Anwar, Muhammad Sarfraz & Davies, Stephen & Sampath, R K, 1996. "Causality between Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: An Examination Using Cointegration Techniques," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 51(2), pages 166-184.
- Ciarreta Antuñano, Aitor & Zárraga Alonso, Ainhoa, 2007. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Spain," BILTOKI 2007-01, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística). Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.