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Defense spending and economic growth across the Taiwan straits: a threshold regression model


  • Chung-Nang Lai
  • Bwo-Nung Huang
  • Chin-Wei Yang


This paper employs both linear and non-linear models to investigate the relationship between national defense spending and economic growth for Taiwan and China. Using data from 1953-2000 on defense spending, GDP, import, export and capital, we find that China's defense spending leads that of Taiwan. There exists the phenomenon of an arms race between both countries when official Chinese data are used. On the one hand, feedback relations prevail between economic growth and defense spending growth in Taiwan. On the other hand, China's national defense is found to lead economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Chung-Nang Lai & Bwo-Nung Huang & Chin-Wei Yang, 2005. "Defense spending and economic growth across the Taiwan straits: a threshold regression model," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 45-57.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:1:p:45-57 DOI: 10.1080/1024269052000323542

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. LaCivita, Charles J. & Frederiksen, Peter C., 1991. "Defense spending and economic growth An alternative approach to the causality issue," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 117-126, January.
    2. Dakurah, A. Henry & Davies, Stephen P. & Sampath, Rajan K., 2001. "Defense spending and economic growth in developing countries: A causality analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 651-658, August.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Weise, Charles L, 1999. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: A Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 85-108, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Devi Prasad DASH & Debi Prasad BAL & Manoranjan SAHOO, 2016. "Nexus between defense expenditure and economic growth in BRIC economies: An empirical investigation," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 89-102, Spring.
    2. Tsangyao Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee & Hsiao-Ping Chu, 2015. "Revisiting the Defense-Growth nexus in European countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 341-356, June.
    3. Habibullah, M.S. & Law, Siong-Hook & Dayang-Afizzah, A.M., 2008. "Defense spending and economic growth in Asian economies: A panel error-correction approach," MPRA Paper 12105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hsien-Hung Kung & Jennifer C. H. Min, 2013. "Military Spending and Economic Growth Nexus in Sixteen Latin and South American Countries: A Bootstrap Panel Causality Test," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 171-185, December.
    5. Ourania Dimitraki & Faek Menla Ali, 2015. "The Long-run Causal Relationship Between Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in China: Revisited," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 311-326, June.
    6. Chien-Chiang Lee & Sheng-Tung Chen, 2007. "Non-Linearity In The Defence Expenditure - Economic Growth Relationship In Taiwan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 537-555.
    7. Ahad, Muhammad & Dar, Adeel Ahmad, 2017. "Modeling the Asymmetric Impact of Defense Spending on Economic Growth: An Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL and Multipliers," MPRA Paper 80085, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    8. Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Does military spending nonlinearly affect economic growth in South Africa?," MPRA Paper 69730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mehmet Akif Destek & Ilyas Okumus, 2016. "Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Brics and Mist Countries: Evidence from Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 14(2), pages 175-186.
    10. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach & Roland Mestel, 2012. "The relationship between budgetary expenditure and economic growth in Poland," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 20(1), pages 161-182, March.
    11. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Yi Chen & Feng-Li Lin & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Asymmetric Granger Causality between Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Top Six Defense Suppliers," Working Papers 201565, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2014. "The nexus between defense expenditure and economic growth: New global evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 474-483.


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