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Application of Bootstrap Methods in Investigation of Size of the Granger Causality Test for Integrated VAR Systems

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  • Lukasz Lach

    (University of Science and Technology, Poland)

Abstract

This paper examines the size performance of the Toda-Yamamoto test for Granger causality in the case of trivariate integrated and cointegrated VAR systems. The standard asymptotic distribution theory and the residual-based bootstrap approach are applied. A variety of types of distribution of error term is considered. The impact of misspecification of initial parameters as well as the influence of an increase in sample size and number of bootstrap replications on size performance of Toda-Yamamoto test statistics is also examined. The results of the conducted simulation study confirm that standard asymptotic distribution theory may often cause significant over-rejection. Application of bootstrap methods usually leads to improvement of size performance of the Toda-Yamamoto test. However, in some cases the considered bootstrap method also leads to serious size distortion and performs worse than the traditional approach based on ÷2 distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukasz Lach, 2010. "Application of Bootstrap Methods in Investigation of Size of the Granger Causality Test for Integrated VAR Systems," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 8(2), pages 167-186.
  • Handle: RePEc:mgt:youmgt:v:8:y:2010:i:2:p:167-186
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mantalos Panagiotis, 2000. "A Graphical Investigation of the Size and Power of the Granger-Causality Tests in Integrated-Cointegrated VAR Systems," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, April.
    2. A. Hatemi-J, 2003. "A new method to choose optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 135-137.
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    7. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    8. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. MacKinnon, James G, 1992. "Model Specification Tests and Artificial Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 102-146, March.
    11. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2006. "Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(13), pages 1489-1500.
    12. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lukasz Lach, 2011. "Impact of hard coal usage for metal production on economic growth of Poland," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 9, pages 103-120.
    2. Alessandro Attanasio & Maurizio Maravalle & Giulia Fioravanti, 2012. "Examining Granger causality between atmospheric parameters and radon," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 723-731, June.
    3. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, lukasz, 2011. "The role of coal consumption in the economic growth of the Polish economy in transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2088-2099, April.
    4. repec:exl:2manag:v:17:y:2016:i:2:p:217-240 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Lukasz Lach & Henryk Gurgul, 2010. "International trade and economic growth in the Polish economy," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 3, pages 5-29.
    6. Talha Yalta, A. & Cakar, Hatice, 2012. "Energy consumption and economic growth in China: A reconciliation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 666-675.
    7. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2012. "The electricity consumption versus economic growth of the Polish economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 500-510.
    8. Wesseh, Presley K. & Zoumara, Babette, 2012. "Causal independence between energy consumption and economic growth in Liberia: Evidence from a non-parametric bootstrapped causality test," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 518-527.
    9. Lin, Boqiang & Wesseh Jr., Presley K., 2014. "Energy consumption and economic growth in South Africa reexamined: A nonparametric testing apporach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 840-850.
    10. Yıldırım, Ertugrul & Sukruoglu, Deniz & Aslan, Alper, 2014. "Energy consumption and economic growth in the next 11 countries: The bootstrapped autoregressive metric causality approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 14-21.
    11. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach & Tomasz Wójtowicz, 2016. "Linear and nonlinear intraday causalities in response to U.S. macroeconomic news announcements: Evidence from Central Europe," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, vol. 17(2), pages 217-240, December.
    12. Di Iorio, Francesca & Triacca, Umberto, 2013. "Testing for Granger non-causality using the autoregressive metric," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 120-125.
    13. Di Iorio, Francesca & Triacca, Umberto, 2011. "Testing for non-causality by using the Autoregressive Metric," MPRA Paper 29637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Lach, Łukasz, 2010. "Fixed capital and long run economic growth: evidence from Poland," MPRA Paper 52280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Henryk Gurgul & Lukasz Lach, 2011. "The interdependence between energy consumption and economic growth in the Polish economy in the last decade," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 9, pages 25-48.
    16. repec:eee:energy:v:139:y:2017:i:c:p:975-990 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bootstrap methods; simulation; Granger causality; bootstrap methods; simulation; Granger causality; VAR models models;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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