IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iee/wpaper/wp0093.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effects of simultaneity on testing Granger-causality – a cautionary note about statistical problems and economic misinterpretations

Author

Abstract

Interpreting Granger causality as economic causality implies that the underlying VAR model is a structural economic model. However, this is wrong if simultaneity occurs. Magnitude and stability of possible errors are analysed in a simulation study. It is shown that economic misinterpretations of tests of Granger causality can occur with probability one for realistic parameter values. Furthermore, the power of the test can be rather low even with a sample size of T=50.

Suggested Citation

  • Joachim Wilde, 2012. "Effects of simultaneity on testing Granger-causality – a cautionary note about statistical problems and economic misinterpretations," IEER Working Papers 93, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    • Handle: RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0093
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://web.fb9.uni-osnabrueck.de/repec/iee/wpaper/13500305_WP_93.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Casu, Barbara & Girardone, Claudia, 2009. "Testing the relationship between competition and efficiency in banking: A panel data analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 134-137, October.
    2. Fiordelisi, Franco & Marques-Ibanez, David & Molyneux, Phil, 2011. "Efficiency and risk in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1315-1326, May.
    3. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. d'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
    4. Jagdish Handa & Shubha Rahman Khan, 2008. "Financial development and economic growth: a symbiotic relationship," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(13), pages 1033-1049.
    5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    6. Hartwig, Jochen, 2010. "Is health capital formation good for long-term economic growth? - Panel Granger-causality evidence for OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 314-325, March.
    7. Jai Sheen Mah, 2010. "Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Economic Growth: The Case of Korea," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 726-735, November.
    8. Pontus Braunerhjelm & Zoltán J. Ács & David B. Audretsch & Bo Carlsson, 2015. "The missing link: knowledge diffusion and entrepreneurship in endogenous growth," Chapters, in: Global Entrepreneurship, Institutions and Incentives, chapter 6, pages 108-128, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Some Recent Papers on Granger Causality
      by Dave Giles in Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog on 2012-12-03 00:30:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stern, David I. & Enflo, Kerstin, 2013. "Causality between energy and output in the long-run," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 135-146.
    2. Naser, Hanan, 2014. "On the cointegration and causality between Oil market, Nuclear Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developed Countries," MPRA Paper 65252, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Mar 2015.
    3. David Stern & Robert Kaufmann, 2014. "Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 257-269, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wilde Joachim, 2015. "How Large are the Effects of Simultaneity on Testing Granger Causality?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(3), pages 320-328, June.
    2. William M. Bowen & Haifeng Qian, 2017. "State spending for higher education: Does it improve economic performance?," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 7-23, March.
    3. Fiordelisi, Franco & Mare, Davide Salvatore, 2014. "Competition and financial stability in European cooperative banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-16.
    4. Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2016. "Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 81-117, September.
    5. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 6, pages 139-164, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Emmanuel Tsiritakis, 2017. "Competition and Efficiency in EU Banking," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 67(2), pages 3-25, April-Jun.
    7. Tsionas, Mike G. & Izzeldin, Marwan, 2018. "Smooth approximations to monotone concave functions in production analysis: An alternative to nonparametric concave least squares," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 797-807.
    8. Jochen Hartwig, 2009. "A panel Granger-causality test of endogenous vs. exogenous growth," KOF Working papers 09-231, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    9. Dong, Xiao-yuan & Pandey, Manish, 2012. "Gender and labor retrenchment in Chinese state owned enterprises: Investigation using firm-level panel data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 385-395.
    10. Tirunillai, S. & Tellis, G.J., 2011. "Does Online Chatter Really Matter? Dynamics of User-Generated Content and Stock Performance," ERIM Report Series Research in Management 25817, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    11. Weber, Enzo, 2006. "British interest rate convergence between the US and Europe: A recursive cointegration analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-005, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    12. Colesnic, Olga & Kounetas, Konstantinos & Michael, Polemis, 2020. "Estimating risk efficiency in Middle East banks before and after the crisis: A metafrontier framework," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    13. Fiordelisi, Franco & Marques-Ibanez, David & Molyneux, Phil, 2011. "Efficiency and risk in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1315-1326, May.
    14. Hui, Eddie C.M. & Chen, Jia, 2012. "Investigating the change of causality in emerging property markets during the financial tsunami," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(15), pages 3951-3962.
    15. Kannyiri Banyen & Nicholas Biekpe, 2020. "Financial integration, competition and bank efficiency: evidence from Africa’s sub-regional markets," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 495-518, November.
    16. Bonanno, Graziella, 2012. "L’efficienza del sistema bancario italiano dal 2006 al 2010. Un’applicazione delle frontiere stocastiche [The Efficiency of Italian Banking System over 2006-2010. An Application of the Stochastic F," MPRA Paper 42831, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Themba G. Chirwa & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "The nexus between key macroeconomic determinants and economic growth in Zambia: a dynamic multivariate Granger causality linkage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 301-327, July.
    18. Roman Horváth & Jakub Seidler & Laurent Weill, 2014. "Bank Capital and Liquidity Creation: Granger-Causality Evidence," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 341-361, June.
    19. Michael Benarroch & Manish Pandey, 2017. "The Impact of Imports and Exports on the Size and Composition of Government Expenditures," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(3), pages 57-68, March.
    20. Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger, 2014. "Fiscal Foresight, Limited Information and the Effects of Government Spending Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(5), pages 667-692, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granger causality; test; simultaneity; instantaneous causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0093. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Karin Wessler-Rensmann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ieosnde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.