IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jns/jbstat/v235y2015i3p320-328.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Large are the Effects of Simultaneity on Testing Granger Causality?

Author

Listed:
  • Wilde Joachim

    (Department of Economics, Rolandstr. 8, 49069 Osnabrueck, Germany)

Abstract

Interpreting Granger causality as economic causality implies that the underlying VAR model is a structural economic model. This is wrong in the case of simultaneity, and causal conclusions can be misleading. Nevertheless, the empirical relevance of this problem still needs to be determined. Therefore, the magnitude and stability of possible errors are analysed in a simulation study. It is shown that economic misinterpretations of tests of Granger causality can occur with probability one for realistic parameter values. Thus, policy conclusions from Granger causality tests can be wrong with probability one if simultaneity occurs. Furthermore, the power of the test can be rather low even with a sample size of T = 50.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilde Joachim, 2015. "How Large are the Effects of Simultaneity on Testing Granger Causality?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(3), pages 320-328, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:235:y:2015:i:3:p:320-328
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2015-0306
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2015-0306
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jbnst-2015-0306?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Halbert White & Xun Lu, 2010. "Granger Causality and Dynamic Structural Systems," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 193-243, spring.
    2. Fiordelisi, Franco & Marques-Ibanez, David & Molyneux, Phil, 2011. "Efficiency and risk in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1315-1326, May.
    3. Casu, Barbara & Girardone, Claudia, 2009. "Testing the relationship between competition and efficiency in banking: A panel data analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 134-137, October.
    4. Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2008. "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 9(2), pages 375-391, September.
    5. Hartwig, Jochen, 2010. "Is health capital formation good for long-term economic growth? - Panel Granger-causality evidence for OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 314-325, March.
    6. Jai Sheen Mah, 2010. "Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Economic Growth: The Case of Korea," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 726-735, November.
    7. Jagdish Handa & Shubha Rahman Khan, 2008. "Financial development and economic growth: a symbiotic relationship," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(13), pages 1033-1049.
    8. Chu, Hsiao-Ping & Chang, Tsangyao, 2012. "Nuclear energy consumption, oil consumption and economic growth in G-6 countries: Bootstrap panel causality test," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 762-769.
    9. Mah, Jai S., 2010. "Foreign direct investment inflows and economic growth of China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 155-158, January.
    10. Pontus Braunerhjelm & Zoltán J. Ács & David B. Audretsch & Bo Carlsson, 2015. "The missing link: knowledge diffusion and entrepreneurship in endogenous growth," Chapters, in: Global Entrepreneurship, Institutions and Incentives, chapter 6, pages 108-128, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joachim Wilde, 2012. "Effects of simultaneity on testing Granger-causality – a cautionary note about statistical problems and economic misinterpretations," IEER Working Papers 93, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    2. Fiordelisi, Franco & Mare, Davide Salvatore, 2014. "Competition and financial stability in European cooperative banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-16.
    3. Themba G. Chirwa & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "The nexus between key macroeconomic determinants and economic growth in Zambia: a dynamic multivariate Granger causality linkage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 301-327, July.
    4. Safwat Alaa & Salah Ashraf & Elsherif Marwa, 2021. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Economic Growth of Egypt (1980-2018)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 74-85.
    5. William M. Bowen & Haifeng Qian, 2017. "State spending for higher education: Does it improve economic performance?," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 7-23, March.
    6. João A. S. ANDRADE & Adelaide P. S. DUARTE & Marta C. N. SIMÕES, 2018. "Education and health: welfare state composition and growth across country groups," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 9, pages 111-144, December.
    7. Uwaoma G. Nwaogu & Michael J. Ryan, 2015. "FDI, Foreign Aid, Remittance and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 100-115, February.
    8. Udi Joshua & Festus V. Bekun & Samuel A. Sarkodie, 2020. "New Insight into the Causal Linkage between Economic Expansion, FDI, Coal consumption, Pollutant emissions and Urbanization in South Africa," Working Papers 20/011, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    9. Brian J. Reich & Shu Yang & Yawen Guan & Andrew B. Giffin & Matthew J. Miller & Ana Rappold, 2021. "A Review of Spatial Causal Inference Methods for Environmental and Epidemiological Applications," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 89(3), pages 605-634, December.
    10. Emmanuel Tsiritakis, 2017. "Competition and Efficiency in EU Banking," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 67(2), pages 3-25, April-Jun.
    11. Chinmaya Behera & Bikash Ranjan Mishra & Biswashree Tanaya Priyadarsini & Lopamudra D. Satpathy, 2020. "Institutional Quality and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: Evidence from Cross-country Data with Policy Implication," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(2), pages 302-316.
    12. Tsionas, Mike G. & Izzeldin, Marwan, 2018. "Smooth approximations to monotone concave functions in production analysis: An alternative to nonparametric concave least squares," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 797-807.
    13. Cuihong, Yang & Yuwan, Duan & Kunfu, Zhu & Xikang, Chen, 2013. "Contributions of FIEs to China’s Economy Using an Input-Output Model Capturing Processing Trade with Ownership Distinction," Conference papers 332355, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Matteo Lanzafame, 2014. "The balance of payments-constrained growth rate and the natural rate of growth: new empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(4), pages 817-838.
    15. Jochen Hartwig, 2009. "A panel Granger-causality test of endogenous vs. exogenous growth," KOF Working papers 09-231, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    16. Peter N. Kiriri, 2019. "Consumer Perception: Animosity, Ethnocentrism and Willingness to Buy Chinese Products," European Journal of Marketing and Economics Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 2, January -.
    17. Dong, Xiao-yuan & Pandey, Manish, 2012. "Gender and labor retrenchment in Chinese state owned enterprises: Investigation using firm-level panel data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 385-395.
    18. White, Halbert & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2014. "Granger causality, exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 316-330.
    19. Pretis, Felix, 2021. "Exogeneity in climate econometrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    20. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Public Administration, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 620-631, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:235:y:2015:i:3:p:320-328. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.