An investigation of the role of China's urban population on coal consumption
This paper investigates the causal relationship between urban population, real GDP, electricity production and coal consumption in China for the period 1971–2009. Using a vector autoregression framework and a modified version of the Granger (1969) causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (J. Econ. 66 (1995) 225), the results suggest that there is causality running from GDP to coal consumption. The variance decomposition analysis report that urban population and coal affect electricity production variability over the forecast period. We also find that increasing urban population may negatively affect China's GDP over time. Policy measures aimed at influencing GDP could ultimately affect coal consumption.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- He, Y.X. & Zhang, S.L. & Yang, L.Y. & Wang, Y.J. & Wang, J., 2010. "Economic analysis of coal price-electricity price adjustment in China based on the CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6629-6637, November.
- Sinton, Jonathan E., 2001. "Accuracy and reliability of China's energy statistics," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 373-383.
- Adams, F. Gerard & Shachmurove, Yochanan, 2008. "Modeling and forecasting energy consumption in China: Implications for Chinese energy demand and imports in 2020," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1263-1278, May.
- Zhang, Xing-Ping & Cheng, Xiao-Mei, 2009. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2706-2712, August.
- Kaufmann, R. K. & Kauppi, H. & Mann, M. L. & Stock, James H., 2011. "Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998â€“2008," Scholarly Articles 29071926, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Beauchemin, Cris & Schoumaker, Bruno, 2005. "Migration to cities in Burkina Faso: Does the level of development in sending areas matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1129-1152, July.
- Zhang, Kevin Honglin & Song, Shunfeng, 2003. "Rural-urban migration and urbanization in China: Evidence from time-series and cross-section analyses," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 386-400.
- Weber, Christopher L. & Peters, Glen P. & Guan, Dabo & Hubacek, Klaus, 2008. "The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3572-3577, September.
- Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997.
"Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-298, May.
- Zapata, Hector O. & Rambaldi, Alicia N., 1996. "Monte Carlo Evidence On Cointegration And Causation," Staff Papers 31690, Louisiana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness.
- Warwick J. McKibbin & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2002. "The Role of Economics in Climate Change Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 107-129, Spring.
- Zhou, Zhongren & Wu, Wenliang & Wang, Xiaohua & Chen, Qun & Wang, Ou, 2009. "Analysis of changes in the structure of rural household energy consumption in northern China: A case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 187-193, January.
- Xiangzheng Deng & Jikun Huang & Scott Rozelle & Emi Uchida, 2010. "Economic Growth and the Expansion of Urban Land in China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 47(4), pages 813-843, April.
- Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "Export-led growth hypothesis for Australia: an empirical re-investigation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(7), pages 423-428.
- Jinke, Li & Hualing, Song & Dianming, Geng, 2008. "Causality relationship between coal consumption and GDP: Difference of major OECD and non-OECD countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(6), pages 421-429, June.
- Jones, Donald W., 1991. "How urbanization affects energy-use in developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 621-630, September.
- Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2010. "Coal consumption and economic growth revisited," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 160-167, January.
- Liu, Ai-ying & Yao, Li-fen & Li, Qing-chen, 2011. "Cointegration Analysis on the Relation between Urbanization and Economic Growth in China," Asian Agricultural Research, USA-China Science and Culture Media Corporation, vol. 3(03), March.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Lin, Bo-qiang & Liu, Jiang-hua, 2010. "Estimating coal production peak and trends of coal imports in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 512-519, January.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
- Lin Chan, Hing & Kam Lee, Shu, 1997. "Modelling and forecasting the demand for coal in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 271-287, July.
- Poumanyvong, Phetkeo & Kaneko, Shinji, 2010. "Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions? A cross-country analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 434-444, December.
- Chuanlong Tang & Sumner J. La Croix, 1993. "Energy Consumption and Economic Activity in China," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 21-36.
- Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Stock-Watson dynamic OLS (DOLS) and error-correction modelling approaches to estimating long- and short-run elasticities in a demand function: new evidence and methodological implications from an appl," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 315-334, October.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)