Might electricity consumption cause urbanization instead? Evidence from heterogeneous panel long-run causality tests
The share of a population living in urban areas, or urbanization, is both an important demographic, socio-economic phenomenon and a popular explanatory variable in macro-level models of energy and electricity consumption and their resulting carbon emissions. Indeed, there is a substantial, growing subset of the global modeling literature that seeks to link urbanization with energy and electricity consumption, as well as with carbon emissions. This paper aims to inform both modelers and model consumers about the appropriateness of establishing such a link by examining the nature of long-run causality between electricity consumption and urbanization using heterogeneous panel methods and data from 105 countries spanning 1971-2009. In addition, the analysis of the time series properties of urbanization has implications both for modelers and for understanding the urbanization phenomenon. We consider total, industrial, and residential aggregations of electricity consumption per capita, three income-based panels, and three geography-based panels for non-OECD countries. The panel unit root, cointegration, and causality tests used account for cross-sectional dependence, nonstationarity, and heterogeneity—all of which are present in the data set. We cannot reject pervasively Granger causality in the urbanization to electricity consumption direction. However, the causality finding that is both the strongest and most similar across the various panels is that of long-run Granger causality from electricity consumption to urbanization. In other words, the employment and quality of life opportunities that access to electricity afford likely encourage migration to cities, and thus, cause urbanization. Also, nearly all countries’ urbanization series contained structural breaks, and the most recent post-break annual change rates suggested that nearly all countries’ rates of urbanization change were slowing. Lastly, future modeling work on energy consumption or carbon emissions should consider subnational scales of analysis, and focus on measures of urban density or urban form rather than national urbanization levels.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Canning & Peter Pedroni, 2008. "Infrastructure, Long-Run Economic Growth And Causality Tests For Cointegrated Panels," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 504-527, 09.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001.
"A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
519, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Wheaton, William C & Shishido, Hisanobu, 1981. "Urban Concentration, Agglomeration Economies, and the Level of Economic Development," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 17-30, October.
- Poumanyvong, Phetkeo & Kaneko, Shinji, 2010. "Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions? A cross-country analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 434-444, December.
- Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013.
"Trivariate Causality between Economic Growth, Urbanisation and Electricity Consumption in Angola: Cointegration and Causality Analysis,"
45580, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Mar 2013.
- Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "Trivariate causality between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in Angola: Cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 876-884.
- Nathan Rosenberg, 1998. "The Role of Electricity in Industrial Development," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 7-24.
- Hyungsik Roger MOON & Benoit PERRON, 2002.
"Testing For A Unit Root In Panels With Dynamic Factors,"
Cahiers de recherche
18-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
- MOON, Hyungsik Roger & PERRON, Benoit., 2002. "Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 2002-18, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Maruotti, Antonello, 2011.
"The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions: Evidence from developing countries,"
Elsevier, vol. 70(7), pages 1344-1353, May.
- Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2008. "The Impact of Urbanization on CO2 Emissions: Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers 2008.50, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2008. "The Impact of Urbanization on CO2 Emissions: Evidence from Developing Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 2377, CESifo Group Munich.
- Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003.
"Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-run Money Demand,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December.
- Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2002. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-Run Money Demand," NBER Technical Working Papers 0287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Mark-Sul(2003) panel DOLS," Statistical Software Components RTZ00112, Boston College Department of Economics.
- WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Chih-Chuan Yeh, 2012.
"The effect of ECSOs on energy use,"
2012-13, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2012. "Does financial development increase energy consumption? The role of industrialization and urbanization in Tunisia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 473-479.
- Brantley Liddle, 2003. "Demographic dynamics and per capita environmental impact: using panel regressions and household decompositions to examine population and transport," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Holtedahl, Pernille & Joutz, Frederick L., 2004. "Residential electricity demand in Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 201-224, March.
- Burney, Nadeem A., 1995. "Socioeconomic development and electricity consumption A cross-country analysis using the random coefficient method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 185-195, July.
- Al-mulali, Usama & Fereidouni, Hassan Gholipour & Lee, Janice Y.M. & Sab, Che Normee Binti Che, 2013. "Exploring the relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and CO2 emission in MENA countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 107-112.
- Halicioglu, Ferda, 2007. "Residential electricity demand dynamics in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-210, March.
- Jushan Bai & Josep Lluís Carrion-I-Silvestre, 2009.
"Structural Changes, Common Stochastic Trends, and Unit Roots in Panel Data,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 471-501.
- Jushan Bai; Josep LluÃs Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2004. "Structural changes, common stochastic trends and unit roots in panel data," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 345, Econometric Society.
- Joakim Westerlund & David L. Edgerton, 2008. "A Simple Test for Cointegration in Dependent Panels with Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(5), pages 665-704, October.
- Phetkeo Poumanyvong & Shinji Kaneko & Shobhakar Dhakal, 2012.
"Impacts of urbanization on national transport and road energy use: Evidence from low, middle and high income countries,"
IDEC DP2 Series
2-2, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).
- Poumanyvong, Phetkeo & Kaneko, Shinji & Dhakal, Shobhakar, 2012. "Impacts of urbanization on national transport and road energy use: Evidence from low, middle and high income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 268-277.
- Henderson, Vernon, 2003. "The Urbanization Process and Economic Growth: The So-What Question," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 47-71, March.
- Donald W. Jones, 1989. "Urbanization and Energy Use In Economic Development," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 29-44.
- Mishra, Vinod & Smyth, Russell & Sharma, Susan, 2009. "The energy-GDP nexus: Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 210-220, August.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Michieka, Nyakundi M. & Fletcher, Jerald J., 2012. "An investigation of the role of China's urban population on coal consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 668-676.
- Karathodorou, Niovi & Graham, Daniel J. & Noland, Robert B., 2010. "Estimating the effect of urban density on fuel demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 86-92, January.
- Kenworthy, Jeffrey R. & Laube, Felix B., 1999. "Patterns of automobile dependence in cities: an international overview of key physical and economic dimensions with some implications for urban policy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(7-8), pages 691-723.
- Jones, Donald W., 1991. "How urbanization affects energy-use in developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 621-630, September.
- Gam, Imen & Ben Rejeb, Jaleleddine, 2012. "Electricity demand in Tunisia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 714-720.
- Brantley Liddle, 2013. "The Energy, Economic Growth, Urbanization Nexus Across Development: Evidence from Heterogeneous Panel Estimates Robust to Cross-Sectional Dependence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
- Liddle, Brantley, 2013. "Urban Density and Climate Change: A STIRPAT Analysis using City-level Data," MPRA Paper 52089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Payne, James E., 2010. "A survey of the electricity consumption-growth literature," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 723-731, March.
- Lariviere, Isabelle & Lafrance, Gaetan, 1999. "Modelling the electricity consumption of cities: effect of urban density," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-66, February.
- Adom, Philip Kofi & Bekoe, William & Akoena, Sesi Kutri Komla, 2012. "Modelling aggregate domestic electricity demand in Ghana: An autoregressive distributed lag bounds cointegration approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 530-537.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52333. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.