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Testing hypotheses in an I(2) model with piecewise linear trends. An analysis of the persistent long swings in the Dmk/$ rate

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  • Johansen, Søren
  • Juselius, Katarina
  • Frydman, Roman
  • Goldberg, Michael

Abstract

This paper discusses the I(2) model with breaks in the deterministic component and illustrates the model with an analysis of German and US prices, exchange rates, and interest rates in the period 1975-1999. It provides new results on the likelihood ratio test of overidentifying restrictions on the cointegrating relations when they contain piecewise linear trends. One important aim of the paper is to demonstrate that a structured I(2) analysis is useful for a better understanding of the empirical regularities underlying the persistent swings in nominal exchange rates, typical in periods of floating exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina & Frydman, Roman & Goldberg, Michael, 2010. "Testing hypotheses in an I(2) model with piecewise linear trends. An analysis of the persistent long swings in the Dmk/$ rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 117-129, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:158:y:2010:i:1:p:117-129
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2015. "Testing the expectations hypothesis with survey forecasts: The impacts of consumer sentiment and the zero lower bound in an I(2) CVAR," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 85-101.
    2. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2016. "Non-linear exchange rate relationships: An automated model selection approach with indicator saturation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 84-109.
    3. Katarina Juselius, 2011. "On the Role of Theory and Evidence in Macroeconomics," Chapters,in: The Elgar Companion to Recent Economic Methodology, chapter 17 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Juselius, Katarina, 2014. "Testing for near I(2) trends when the signal-to-noise ratio is small," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-30.
    5. Gomez-Biscarri, Javier & Hualde, Javier, 2015. "A residual-based ADF test for stationary cointegration in I(2) settings," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 280-294.
    6. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2014. "Bond market co-movements, expected inflation and the GBP-USD equilibrium real exchange rate," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 242-256.
    7. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:5:y:2017:i:3:p:30-:d:104032 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:econom:v:198:y:2017:i:2:p:271-276 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Joscha Beckmann, 2011. "Nonlinear Adjustment, Purchasing Power Parity and the Role of Nominal Exchange Rates and Prices," Ruhr Economic Papers 0272, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Zanetti Chini, Emilio, 2010. "Does the purchasing power parity hypothesis hold after 1998?," MPRA Paper 27225, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Francesca Di Iorio & Stefano Fachin & Riccardo Lucchetti, 2016. "Can you do the wrong thing and still be right? Hypothesis testing in I(2) and near-I(2) cointegrated VARs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(38), pages 3665-3678, August.
    12. Beckmann, Joscha, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment, purchasing power parity and the role of nominal exchange rates and prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 176-190.
    13. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    14. Katarina Juselius, 2017. "Using a Theory-Consistent CVAR Scenario to Test an Exchange Rate Model Based on Imperfect Knowledge," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(3), pages 1-20, July.
    15. repec:zbw:rwirep:0272 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Katarina Juselius, 2011. "On the Role of Theory and Evidence in Macroeconomics," Chapters,in: The Elgar Companion to Recent Economic Methodology, chapter 17 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Katarina Juselius & Katrin Assenmacher, 2014. "Real exchange rate persistence: the case of the Swiss franc-US dollar rate," Discussion Papers 14-26, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    18. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Is there a Homogeneous Causality Pattern between Oil Prices and Currencies of Oil Importers and Exporters?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0431, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    19. repec:zbw:rwirep:0431 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:5:y:2017:i:3:p:29-:d:103932 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2015. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Forecast Errors about Persistently Trending Fundamentals," Working Papers 1501, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    22. Mosconi, Rocco & Paruolo, Paolo, 2014. "Rank and order conditions for identification in simultaneous system of cointegrating equations with integrated variables of order two," MPRA Paper 53589, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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