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Using a Theory-Consistent CVAR Scenario to Test an Exchange Rate Model Based on Imperfect Knowledge

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  • Katarina Juselius

    (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

A theory-consistent CVAR scenario describes a set of testable regularieties one should expect to see in the data if the basic assumptions of the theoretical model are empirically valid. Using this method, the paper demonstrates that all basic assumptions about the shock structure and steady-state behavior of an an imperfect knowledge based model for exchange rate determination can be formulated as testable hypotheses on common stochastic trends and cointegration. This model obtained a remarkable support for almost every testable hypothesis and was able to adeqautely account for the long persistent swings in the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarina Juselius, 2017. "Using a Theory-Consistent CVAR Scenario to Test an Exchange Rate Model Based on Imperfect Knowledge," Discussion Papers 17-07, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:1707
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    Cited by:

    1. Jung, Alexander & Carcel Villanova, Hector, 2020. "The empirical properties of euro area M3, 1980-2017," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 37-49.
    2. Katarina Juselius, 2021. "Searching for a Theory That Fits the Data: A Personal Research Odyssey," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.
    3. Bošnjak Mile & Novak Ivan & Vlajčić Davor, 2021. "Market Efficiency of Euro Exchange Rates and Trading Strategies," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 67(2), pages 10-19, June.
    4. Katarina Juselius, 2017. "A CVAR scenario for a standard monetary model using theory-consistent expectations," Discussion Papers 17-08, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    5. Andreas Hetland & Simon Hetland, 2017. "Short-Term Expectation Formation Versus Long-Term Equilibrium Conditions: The Danish Housing Market," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-21, September.
    6. Juselius, Katarina & Stillwagon, Josh R., 2018. "Are outcomes driving expectations or the other way around? An I(2) CVAR analysis of interest rate expectations in the dollar/pound market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 93-105.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Theory-Consistent CVAR; Imperfect Knowledge; Theory-Based Expectations; International Puzzles; Long Swings; Persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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