Testing for Near I (2) Trends When the Signal to Noise Ratio is Small
Researchers seldom find evidence of I (2) in exchange rates, prices, and other macroeconomics time series when they test the order of integration using univariate Dickey-Fuller tests. In contrast, when using the multivariate ML trace test we frequently find double unit roots in the data. Our paper demonstrates by simulations that this often happens when the signal-to-noise-ratio is small.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 26, DK-1353 Copenhagen K., Denmark|
Phone: (+45) 35 32 30 10
Fax: +45 35 32 30 00
Web page: http://www.econ.ku.dk
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Ulf G. Erlandsson, 2004.
"Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1348, CESifo Group Munich.
- Yin-wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai & Michael Bergman, 2003.
"Dissecting the PPP Puzzle: The Unconventional Roles of Nominal Exchange Rate and Price Adjustments,"
102003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S. & Bergman, Michael, 2004. "Dissecting the PPP puzzle: the unconventional roles of nominal exchange rate and price adjustments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 135-150, October.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai & Michael Bergman, 2003. "Dissecting the PPP Puzzle: The Unconventional Roles of Nominal Exchange Rate and Price Adjustment," CESifo Working Paper Series 924, CESifo Group Munich.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina & Frydman, Roman & Goldberg, Michael, 2010. "Testing hypotheses in an I(2) model with piecewise linear trends. An analysis of the persistent long swings in the Dmk/$ rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 117-129, September.
- Luca Fanelli & Emanuele Bacchiocchi, 2005. "Testing the purchasing power parity through I(2) cointegration techniques," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 749-770.
- Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
- Charles Engel, 1992.
"Can the Markov Switching Model Forecast Exchange Rates?,"
NBER Working Papers
4210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engel, Charles, 1994. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 151-165, February.
- Charles Engel, 1991. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Research Working Paper 91-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Franchi, Massimo & Jusélius, Katarina, 2007.
"Taking a DSGE Model to the Data Meaningfully,"
Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal,
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 1, pages 1-38.
- Kongsted, Hans Christian, 2005. "Testing the nominal-to-real transformation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 205-225, February.
- Hans Christian Kongsted, 2003. "An I(2) cointegration analysis of small-country import price determination," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 53-71, 06.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:1401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Hoffmann)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.