Taking a DSGE Model to the Data Meaningfully
All economists say that they want to take their models to the data. But with incomplete and highly imperfect data, doing so is difficult and requires carefully matching the assumptions of the model with the statistical properties of the data. The cointegrated VAR (CVAR) offers a way of doing so. In this paper we outline a method for translating the assumptions underlying a DSGE model into a set of testable assumptions on a cointegrated VAR model and illustrate the ideas with the RBC model in Ireland (2004). Accounting for unit roots (near unit roots) in the model is shown to provide a powerful robustification of the statistical and economic inference about persistent and less persistent movements in the data. We propose that all basic assumptions underlying the theory model should be formulated as a set of testable hypotheses on the long-run structure of a CVAR model, a so called 'theory consistent hypothetical scenario'. The advantage of such a scenario is that it forces us to formulate all testable implications of the basic hypotheses underlying a theory model. We demonstrate that most assumptions underlying the DSGE model and, hence, the RBC model are rejected when properly tested. Leaving the RBC model aside, we then report a structured CVAR analysis that summarizes the main features of the data in terms of long-run relations and common stochastic trends. We argue that structuring the data in this way offers a number of 'sophisticated' stylized facts that a theory model should replicate in order to claim empirical relevance.
Volume (Year): 1 (2007)
Issue (Month): ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Kiellinie 66, D-24105 Kiel|
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 8814528
Web page: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ellen R. McGrattan, 1991.
"The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
37, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- McGrattan, Ellen R., 1994. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 573-601, June.
- Davidson, James, 1998. "Structural relations, cointegration and identification: some simple results and their application," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 87-113, August.
- Altug, Sumru, 1989.
"Time-to-Build and Aggregate Fluctuations: Some New Evidence,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 889-920, November.
- Sumru Altug, 1986. "Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence," Working Papers 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Ingram, B.F. & Kocherlakota, N.R. & Savin, N.E., 1992.
"Explaining Business Cycles : A Multiple Shock Approach,"
92-09, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- Ingram, Beth Fisher & Kocherlakota, Narayana R. & Savin, N. E., 1994. "Explaining business cycles: A multiple-shock approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 415-428, December.
- Peter N. Ireland, 1999.
"A Method for Taking Models to the Data,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
421, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter Ireland, 1999. "Matlab code for A Method for Taking Models to the Data," QM&RBC Codes 46, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Peter Ireland, 1999. "A Method for Taking Models to the Data," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1233, Society for Computational Economics.
- Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "A method for taking models to the data," Working Paper 9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Bencivenga, Valerie R, 1992. "An Econometric Study of Hours and Output Variation with Preference Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(2), pages 449-71, May.
- George J. Hall, 1994.
"Overtime, effort and the propagation of business cycle shocks,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
94-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Hall, George J., 1996. "Overtime, effort, and the propagation of business cycle shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 139-160, August.
- Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2004. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of outliers," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 249-271, 06.
- DeJong, David N. & Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2000. "A Bayesian approach to dynamic macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 203-223, October.
- Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April.
- Hansen, Gary D., 1985.
"Indivisible labor and the business cycle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
- Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:5739. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.