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Reflexivity, expectations feedback and almost self-fulfilling equilibria: economic theory, empirical evidence and laboratory experiments

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  • Cars Hommes

Abstract

We discuss recent work on bounded rationality and learning in relation to Soros' principle of reflexivity and stress the empirical importance of non-rational, almost self-fulfilling equilibria in positive feedback systems. As an empirical example, we discuss a behavioral asset pricing model with heterogeneous expectations. Bubble and crash dynamics is triggered by shocks to fundamentals and amplified by agents switching endogenously between a mean-reverting fundamental rule and a trend-following rule, based upon their relative performance. We also discuss learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments, showing that in positive feedback systems individuals coordinate expectations on non-rational, almost self-fulfilling equilibria with persistent price fluctuations very different from rational equilibria. Economic policy analysis may benefit enormously by focusing on efficiency and welfare gains in correcting mispricing along almost self-fulfilling equilibria.

Suggested Citation

  • Cars Hommes, 2013. "Reflexivity, expectations feedback and almost self-fulfilling equilibria: economic theory, empirical evidence and laboratory experiments," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 406-419, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jecmet:v:20:y:2013:i:4:p:406-419
    DOI: 10.1080/1350178X.2013.859426
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    Cited by:

    1. Ling Zhang & Wenlong Bian & Hao Zhang, 2019. "Dissecting the myth of the house price in Chinese metropolises: allowing for behavioral heterogeneity among investors," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(4), pages 721-740, December.
    2. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars, 2019. "When speculators meet suppliers: Positive versus negative feedback in experimental housing markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Pei, Jiaoying, 2021. "Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    4. Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2021. "Traders, forecasters and financial instability: A model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 626-673.
    5. Bazán-Palomino, Walter & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2018. "The New Keynesian framework for a small open economy with structural breaks: Empirical evidence from Peru," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 13-25.
    6. Katarina Juselius, 2017. "Using a Theory-Consistent CVAR Scenario to Test an Exchange Rate Model Based on Imperfect Knowledge," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-20, July.
    7. Agliari, Anna & Hommes, Cars H. & Pecora, Nicolò, 2016. "Path dependent coordination of expectations in asset pricing experiments: A behavioral explanation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 15-28.
    8. Bao, Te & Corgnet, Brice & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Riyanto, Yohanes E. & Zhu, Jiahua, 2023. "Predicting the unpredictable: New experimental evidence on forecasting random walks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. Tiziana Assenza & Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 11-70, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    10. Kinda Hachem & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2017. "Inflation Announcements and Social Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1673-1713, December.
    11. Katarina Juselius & Katrin Assenmacher, 2014. "Real exchange rate persistence: the case of the Swiss franc-US dollar rate," Discussion Papers 14-26, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    12. da Gama Batista, João & Massaro, Domenico & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe & Challet, Damien & Hommes, Cars, 2017. "Do investors trade too much? A laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 18-34.
    13. Juselius, Katarina & Dimelis, Sophia, 2019. "The Greek crisis: A story of self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 13, pages 1-22.
    14. Katarina Juselius, 2021. "Searching for a Theory That Fits the Data: A Personal Research Odyssey," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.
    15. Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Isabelle Salle, 2019. "Monetary And Fiscal Policy Design At The Zero Lower Bound: Evidence From The Lab," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1120-1140, April.
    16. Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2021. "Managing self-organization of expectations through monetary policy: A macro experiment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 170-186.
    17. Hefti, Andreas, 2016. "On the relationship between uniqueness and stability in sum-aggregative, symmetric and general differentiable games," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 83-96.
    18. Olivér Kovács, 2019. "Grounding Complexity Economics in Framing Modern Governance," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 69(4), pages 571-594, December.
    19. Bekiros, Stelios & Jlassi, Mouna & Lucey, Brian & Naoui, Kamel & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2017. "Herding behavior, market sentiment and volatility: Will the bubble resume?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 107-131.
    20. Cars Hommes, 2017. "From Self-Fulfilling Mistakes to Behavioral Learning Equilibria," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Nicholas C. Yannelis (ed.), Sunspots and Non-Linear Dynamics, chapter 0, pages 97-123, Springer.
    21. Emanuele Citera & Lino Sau, 2021. "Reflexivity, Financial Instability and Monetary Policy: A ‘Convention-Based’ Approach," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 327-343, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior

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