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Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

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  • Møller, Niels Framroze

Abstract

Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the economic model implies the econometric concept of strong exogeneity for â. The economic equilibrium corresponds to the so-called long-run value (Johansen 2005), the comparative statics are captured by the long-run impact matrix, C; and the exogenous variables are the common trends. Also, the adjustment parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Møller, Niels Framroze, 2008. "Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-21, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:7283
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    Cited by:

    1. Niels Møller & Paul Sharp, 2014. "Malthus in cointegration space: evidence of a post-Malthusian pre-industrial England," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 105-140, March.
    2. Marc P. B. Klemp, 2012. "Prices, wages and fertility in pre-industrial England," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 6(1), pages 63-77, January.
    3. Katarina Juselius, 2017. "Using a Theory-Consistent CVAR Scenario to Test an Exchange Rate Model Based on Imperfect Knowledge," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(3), pages 1-20, July.
    4. Katarina Juselius, 2009. "Time to reject the privileging of economic theory over empirical evidence? A Reply to Lawson (2009)," Discussion Papers 09-16, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    5. Juselius, Mikael, 2008. "Testing the New Keynesian Model on U.S. and Euro Area Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-26.
    6. Ordóñez, Javier & Jusélius, Katarina, 2009. "Balassa-Samuelson and Wage, Price and Unemployment Dynamics in the Spanish Transition to EMU Membership," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 3, pages 1-30.
    7. Møller, Niels Framroze, 2015. "Energy Demand, Substitution and a Potential for Electrification: An econometric analysis of eight Danish subsectors," MPRA Paper 69931, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegrated VAR; unit root approximation; economic theory models; expectations; general equilibrium; DSGE models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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