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Interpretation of Cointegrating Coefficients in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

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  • Søren Johansen

Abstract

Regression coefficients are interpreted by a counterfactual experiment. For simultaneous equations this experiment can be implemented if the coefficients are identified, and throws some light on the role of instruments and the method of indirect least squares. This paper discusses another counterfactual experiment in the vector autoregressive model in order to interpret the coefficients of an identified cointegrating relation. The dynamics of the model is used to implement a long-run change by changing the current values. The counterfactual experiment can be conducted precisely when the cointegrating relation is identified. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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  • Søren Johansen, 2005. "Interpretation of Cointegrating Coefficients in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(1), pages 93-104, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:67:y:2005:i:1:p:93-104
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    Cited by:

    1. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard, 2010. "Can statistics do without artefacts?," MPRA Paper 42867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mathias Hoffmann & Oliver Holtemˆller, 2010. "Transmission of Nominal Exchange Rate Changes to Export Prices and Trade Flows and Implications for Exchange Rate Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(1), pages 127-161, March.
    3. Bussière, Matthieu & Chudik, Alexander & Sestieri, Giulia, 2009. "Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1087, European Central Bank.
    4. Paolo Paruolo, 2006. "The Likelihood Ratio Test for the Rank of a Cointegration Submatrix," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 921-948, December.
    5. Nedialko Nestorov, 2015. "Cointegration Approach – Application Opportunities," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 110-140.
    6. H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2004. "Identifying, estimating and testing restricted cointegrated systems: An overview," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 58(4), pages 440-465.
    7. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2010. "Speed of adjustment in cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 130-141, September.
    8. Massimo Franchi & Paolo Paruolo, 2017. "A general inversion theorem for cointegration," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2017/3, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
    9. Niels Framroze Møller, 2013. "Understanding Unemployment Hysteresis: A system-based econometric approach to changing equilibria and slow adjustment," Discussion Papers 13-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    10. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bo??tjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation in Acceding Countries: The Role of Pass-through," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-674, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    11. Christian Rojas & Alexandra Andino & Wayne D. Purcell, 2008. "Retailers' response to wholesale price changes: new evidence from scanner-based quantity-weighted beef prices," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 1-15.
    12. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López & Sergio Ocampo, 2011. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 29(66), pages 128-173, Diciembre.
    13. Samake, Issouf & Yang, Yongzheng, 2014. "Low-income countries’ linkages to BRICS: Are there growth spillovers?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-14.
    14. Møller, Niels Framroze, 2008. "Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-29.
    15. Tamer Cetin & Kadir Y. Eryigit, 2015. "Estimating the Economic Effects of Deregulation: Evidence from the Turkish Airline Industry," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1525, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    16. Dengjun Zhang, 2015. "The trade effect of price risk: a system-wide approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1149-1167, May.
    17. Çetin, Tamer & Yasin Eryigit, Kadir, 2011. "Estimating the effects of entry regulation in the Istanbul taxicab market," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 476-484, July.
    18. Juselius, Mikael, 2008. "Long-run relationships between labor and capital: Indirect evidence on the elasticity of substitution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 739-756, June.
    19. Møller, Niels Framroze, 2017. "Energy demand, substitution and environmental taxation: An econometric analysis of eight subsectors of the Danish economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 97-109.
    20. Çetin, Tamer & Yüksel, Fatih, 2014. "Empirical investigation on energy dependence-consumption nexus: Evidence from Turkish natural gas market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 243-251.
    21. Çetin, Tamer & Yasin Eryigit, Kadir, 2013. "The economic effects of government regulation: Evidence from the New York taxicab market," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 169-177.
    22. Vardhan, Harsh & Sinha, Pankaj, 2015. "Influence of Macroeconomic Variable on Indian Stock Movement: Cointegration Approach," MPRA Paper 64369, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2015.
    23. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2010. "Can Statistics Do without Artefacts?," Working Papers hal-00750495, HAL.
    24. Gomez-Biscarri, Javier & Hualde, Javier, 2015. "Regression-based analysis of cointegration systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 32-50.
    25. Tamer Cetin & Yildirim B. Cicen & Kadir Y. Eryigit, 2016. "Do Institutions Matter for Economic Performance? Theoretical Insights and Evidence from Turkey," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1610, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

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