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Unit Roots in White Noise

Author

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  • Onatski, Alexei
  • Uhlig, Harald

Abstract

We show that the empirical distribution of the roots of the vector auto-regression of order n fitted to T observations of a general stationary or non-stationary process, converges to the uniform distribution over the unit circle on the complex plane, when both T and n tend to infinity so that (ln T ) /n → 0 and n^3/T → 0. In particular, even if the process is a white noise, the roots of the estimated vector auto-regression will converge by absolute value to unity.

Suggested Citation

  • Onatski, Alexei & Uhlig, Harald, 2009. "Unit Roots in White Noise," MPRA Paper 14057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14057
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clive W. J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2006. "Dynamics of Model Overfitting Measured in terms of Autoregressive Roots," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 347-365, May.
    2. Bent Nielsen & Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2008. "Properties of etimated characteristic roots," Economics Papers 2008-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    3. Søren Johansen, 2003. "The asymptotic variance of the estimated roots in a cointegrated vector autoregressive model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(6), pages 663-678, November.
    4. Lewis, Richard & Reinsel, Gregory C., 1985. "Prediction of multivariate time series by autoregressive model fitting," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 393-411, June.
    5. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    6. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(5), pages 979-1016, September.
    7. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, HELMUT, 1996. "Infinite-Order Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 814-844, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:5:y:2017:i:4:p:49-:d:119536 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. David I. Stern, 2004. "A Multicointegration Model of Global Climate Change," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0406, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    unit roots; unit root; white noise; asymptotics; autoregression; Granger and Jeon; clustering of roots;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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