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A Modified Information Criterion For Cointegration Tests Based On A Var Approximation

  • Qu, Zhongjun
  • Perron, Pierre

We consider the cointegration tests of Johansen (1988, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12, 231 254; 1991, Econometrica 59, 1551 1580) when a vector autoregressive (VAR) process of order k is used to approximate a more general linear process with a possibly infinite VAR representation. Traditional methods to select the lag order, such as Akaike s information criterion (AIC) or the Bayesian information criterion, often lead to too parsimonious a model with the implication that the cointegration tests suffer from substantial size distortions in finite samples. We extend the analysis of Ng and Perron (2001, Econometrica 69, 1519 1554) to derive a modified Akaike s information criterion (MAIC) in this multivariate setting. The idea is to use the information specified by the null hypothesis as it relates to restrictions on the parameters of the model to keep an extra term in the penalty function of the AIC. This MAIC takes a very simple form for which this extra term is simply the likelihood ratio test for testing the null hypothesis of r against more than r cointegrating vectors. We provide theoretical analyses of its validity and of the fact that cointegration tests constructed from a VAR whose lag order is selected using the MAIC have the same limit distribution as when the order is finite and known. We also provide theoretical and simulation analyses to show how the MAIC leads to VAR approximations that yield tests with drastically improved size properties with little loss of power.We are grateful to two referees for especially useful and constructive comments.

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Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Econometric Theory.

Volume (Year): 23 (2007)
Issue (Month): 04 (August)
Pages: 638-685

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Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:23:y:2007:i:04:p:638-685_07
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  1. repec:cup:etheor:v:8:y:1992:i:1:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "A Note on the Selection of Time Series Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 500, Boston College Department of Economics.
  3. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  4. Yoosoon Chang & Joon Park, 2002. "On The Asymptotics Of Adf Tests For Unit Roots," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 431-447.
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  9. Perron, P. & Ng, S., 1994. "Useful Modifications to Some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and Their Local Asymptotic Properties," Cahiers de recherche 9427, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  10. Perron, Pierre & Campbell, John Y, 1993. "A Note on Johansen's Cointegration Procedure When Trends Are Present," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 777-89.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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