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Shock Therapy? An I (2) Cointegration Analysis of the Russian Stabilization

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  • Ekaterina VOSTROKNUTOVA

Abstract

This paper investigates an array of nominal systems for the Russian economy, of domestic price level, import prices, exchange rates, money stock, barter, nominal wages, and output, and conducts I(1) and I(2) cointegration analyses. Post-stabilization monthly data are used, 1995:6-2001:5. The price-wage spiral presence is tested, and the effects of money and real exchange rate. In the last system, barter is introduced, and the effect of that on the comparative Polish-Russian analysis is discussed. It is found that in Russia inflation has had mostly monetary roots, that exchange rate was important for the price dynamics, and that ruble was inefficiently over-valued. While the wage-price spiral was not found in the system without barter, in the system corrected for barter the role of wages significantly increased. The paper concludes with a comparative policy analysis to Poland, which updates the previous version in Vostroknutova (2003).

Suggested Citation

  • Ekaterina VOSTROKNUTOVA, 2003. "Shock Therapy? An I (2) Cointegration Analysis of the Russian Stabilization," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/16, European University Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2003/16
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    Keywords

    cointegration; I(2); monetary policy; incomes policy; stabilization; Russia;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy

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