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An empirical analysis of Korea's trade imbalances with the US and Japan

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  • A. Kim

Abstract

This paper investigates the macro-determinants of Korea's persistent bilateral trade deficit with Japan but her trade surplus with the US using Johansen's cointegration-error correction model, which includes bilateral trade balance and real exchange rate, domestic and foreign incomes and relative money supply. The empirical results show that all variables included affect bilateral trade balances and there exists a long-run equilibrium among them. Especially, Korean won depreciation improves Korea–US trade balance according to the Marshall–Lerner condition while the J-curve effect between Korea and Japan exists with a little improvement of deterioration of trade balance followed by Korean won depreciation. In addition, domestic economic growth is found to improve persistent trade deficits against Japan and mitigate trade surplus with the US. The short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on Korea–US trade balance are opposite to those on Korea–Japan. The exogenous US income contributes to increase Korea–US trade balance.

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  • A. Kim, 2009. "An empirical analysis of Korea's trade imbalances with the US and Japan," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 211-226.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:14:y:2009:i:3:p:211-226
    DOI: 10.1080/13547860902974971
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "India's trade with USA and her trade balance: An empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 29023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Shaar, Karam & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi, 2016. "US-China trade and exchange rate dilemma: The role of trade data discrepancy," Working Paper Series 5145, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Krittika Banerjee & Ashima Goyal, 2021. "Current account imbalances: Exploring role of domestic and external factors for large emerging markets," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-001, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    5. Parray Waseem A. & Wani Suadat H. & Yasmin Effat, 2022. "Determinants of the Trade Balance in India. Evidence from a Post-Liberalisation Period," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 32(4), pages 16-37, December.
    6. Jungho Baek & Yoon Jung Choi, 2020. "Do oil price changes really matter to the trade balance? Evidence from Korea‐ASEAN commodity trade data," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 250-278, September.
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Jalil, Abdul & Islam, Faridul, 2010. "Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Balance in Pakistan: A Revisit," MPRA Paper 27631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Shaar, Karam & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi, 2016. "US-China trade and exchange rate dilemma: The role of trade data discrepancy," Working Paper Series 19469, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.

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