IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Economic interdependence and bilateral trade imbalance across the Taiwan Strait

Listed author(s):
  • Yi-Bin Chiu

Purpose - Despite a growing interest in research, no existing study explores the nature of, and the relationship between, the real exchange rate and trade imbalance between Taiwan and China. These economies were admitted to the World Trade Organization in late 2001 (China) and in January 2002 (Taiwan). This study aims to redress this deficiency. Design/methodology/approach - Using Johansen's cointegration approach and bilateral trade data, the study reveals overwhelming evidence of a stable long-run relationship of the real exchange rate and bilateral trade balance between Taiwan and its trading partners: China, the USA, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. Findings - The evidence indicates that the currency depreciation of the New Taiwan dollar improves Taiwan's bilateral trade balance, except with China. Originality/value - The findings imply that Taiwan cannot resolve the cross-Strait trade imbalance alone via the currency depreciation, and macroeconomic adjustments, including application of the WTO rules, currency exchange and imports of Chinese goods, need to be negotiated on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/10.1108/01443580910983816?utm_campaign=RePEc&WT.mc_id=RePEc
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 36 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 411-432

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:36:y:2009:i:4:p:411-432
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com

Order Information: Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
Web: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/jes.htm Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
  2. Tarlok Singh, 2004. "Testing J-curve hypothesis and analysing the effect of exchange rate volatility on the balance of trade in India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 227-245, 05.
  3. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Rahul Sen & Reza Y. Siregar, 2004. "Misalignment of the Baht and its Trade Balance Consequences for Thailand in the 1980s and 1990s," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(7), pages 985-1012, 07.
  4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  5. Ramon Moreno, 1989. "Exchange rates and trade adjustment in Taiwan and Korea," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr, pages 30-48.
  6. Ueda, Kazuo, 1983. "Trade Balance Adjustment with Imported Intermediate Goods: The Japanese Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 618-625, November.
  7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2001. "Nominal and real effective exchange rates of middle eastern countries and their trade performance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 103-111.
  8. Moffett, Michael H., 1989. "The J-curve revisited: an empirical examination for the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 425-444, September.
  9. Hsing, Han-Min, 2005. "Re-examination of J-curve effect for Japan, Korea and Taiwan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 43-58, January.
  10. Hui-Chuan Chen, 2002. "Taiwan's exports and trade imbalance against US and Japan: an empirical investigation based on error correction model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2303-2309.
  11. Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin & Yong Chul Park, 2004. "Transpacific trade imbalances: Causes and cures," CAMA Working Papers 2004-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  12. Hui-Chuan Chen, 2001. "Taiwan's exports and trade imbalance against US and Japan: an empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1283-1287.
  13. Singh, Tarlok, 2002. "India's trade balance: the role of income and exchange rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 437-452, August.
  14. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  15. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May.
  16. Nadenichek, Jon, 2000. "The Japan-US trade imbalance: a real business cycle perspective," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 255-271, September.
  17. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
  18. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
  19. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "Are the effects of monetary policy in the euro area greater in recessions than in booms?," Working Paper Series 0052, European Central Bank.
  20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
  21. Matiur Rahman & Muhammad Mustafa & Daryl Burckel, 1997. "Dynamics of the yen-dollar real exchange rate and the US-Japan real trade balance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 661-664.
  22. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 1999. "The long-run relation between a black market exchange rate and the trade balance: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 26(2), pages 121-129, January.
  23. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
  24. Francis Cheung & Maw Lin Lee & Yi-Chen Wu, 1997. "Endogenous export prices and the Taiwan-US trade imbalance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 23-31.
  25. M. Chatib Basri & Hal Hill, 2004. "Ideas, Interests and Oil Prices: The Political Economy of Trade Reform During Soeharto's Indonesia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 633-655, 05.
  26. Swarnjit Arora & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "Bilateral J-curve between India and her trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1037-1041.
  27. Burda, Michael C & Gerlach, Stefan, 1992. "Intertemporal Prices and the U.S. Trade Balance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1234-1253, December.
  28. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
  29. Tai Yung Kam & Jwu-Rong Lin, 1998. "Taiwan's trade imbalance against Japan: an econometric analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 101-104.
  30. Marial awou Yol & Ahmad zubaidi Baharumshah, 2007. "Estimating Exchange Rate And Bilateral Trade Balance Relationships: The Experience Of Sub-Saharan African Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(1), pages 35-51, 03.
  31. Fung, K. C. & Lau, Lawrence J., 2003. "Adjusted estimates of United States-China bilateral trade balances: 1995-2002," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 489-496, June.
  32. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
  33. R. Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2003. "Is the J-Curve Effect Observable for Small North European Economies?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 119-134, April.
  34. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2007. "United States-China Trade At The Commodity Level And The Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(3), pages 341-361, 07.
  35. Won W. Koo & Renan Zhuang, 2007. "The Role Of Exchange Rate In Sino-U.S. Bilateral Trade," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(3), pages 362-373, 07.
  36. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2004. "New Zealand's trade balance: evidence of the J-curve and granger causality," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 351-354.
  37. Yousefi, Ayoub & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2003. "Exchange rate of the US dollar and the J curve: the case of oil exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 741-765, November.
  38. M. Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "A disaggregated approach to test the J-Curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 102-113, March.
  39. Han-Min Hsing & Andreas Savvides, 1996. "Does a J-curve exist for Korea and Taiwan?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 127-145, April.
  40. Lal, Anil K. & Lowinger, Thomas C., 2002. "Nominal effective exchange rate and trade balance adjustment in South Asia countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 371-383.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:36:y:2009:i:4:p:411-432. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Virginia Chapman)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.