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Transpacific trade imbalances: Causes and cures

Author

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  • Jong-Wha Lee
  • Warwick J. McKibbin
  • Yong Chul Park

Abstract

This paper explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances. We find the fundamental cause of trade imbalance since 1997 is changes in saving investment gaps, attributed to the surge of the U.S fiscal deficits and the decline of East Asia’s private investment after the 1997 financial crisis. Our simulation results show that a revaluation of East Asia’s exchange rates by 10 percent (effectively a shift in monetary policy) cannot resolve the imbalances. We find East Asia’s concerted efforts to stimulate aggregate demand can have significant impacts on trade balances globally, but the impact on the US trade balance is not large. US fiscal contraction is estimated to have large impacts on the US trade position overall and on the bilateral trade balances with East Asian economies. These results suggest that in order to improve the transpacific imbalance, macroeconomic adjustment will need to be made on both sides of the Pacific.

Suggested Citation

  • Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin & Yong Chul Park, 2004. "Transpacific trade imbalances: Causes and cures," CAMA Working Papers 2004-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2004-14
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-06/14_lee_mckibbin_park_2004.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Demirel, Erhan & Ommeren, Jos van & Rietveld, Piet, 2010. "A matching model for the backhaul problem," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 549-561, May.
    2. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Sun, Chia-Hung, 2010. "The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 705-716, May.
    3. Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2007. "Domestic Investment And External Imbalances In East Asia," CAMA Working Papers 2007-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Ho, Sy-Hoa & Nguyen, Trung-Thanh & To-The, Nguyen, 2020. "Asymmetry and Symmetry of real exchange rate effect on the bilateral trade balance between Vietnam and the United States: aggregated and disaggregated levels of investigation," MPRA Paper 98416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bagnai, Alberto, 2009. "The role of China in global external imbalances: Some further evidence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 508-526, September.
    6. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Mary Leung, 2021. "US trade deficit, a reality check: New evidence incorporating asymmetric and non‐linear effects of exchange rate dynamics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 818-836, March.
    7. Soyoung Kim & Jong‐Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2018. "Asia's rebalancing and growth," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(10), pages 2709-2731, October.
    8. W. Max Corden, 2007. "Those Current Account Imbalances: A Sceptical View1," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 363-382, March.
    9. Gehlhar, Mark J. & Dohlman, Erik, 2006. "Macroeconomic and Global Growth Influences on the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21324, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Warwick J. McKibbin & Andrew B. Stoeckel, 2012. "Global Fiscal Consolidation," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 124-146, Winter/Sp.
    11. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Sun, Chia-Hung D., 2016. "The role of savings rate in exchange rate and trade imbalance nexus: Cross-countries evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 1017-1025.
    12. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2013. "A Global Approach to Energy and the Environment," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 995-1068, Elsevier.
    13. Yi‐Bin Chiu & Chia‐Hung Sun, 2009. "Economic interdependence and bilateral trade imbalance across the Taiwan Strait," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(4), pages 411-432, September.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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