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Those Current Account Imbalances: A Sceptical View1

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  • W. Max Corden

Abstract

The international current account imbalances, where the United States has a vast deficit, and several countries, notably Japan, China, Germany and the oil exporters have corresponding surpluses, are usually seen as problems. The argument here is that current account imbalances simply indicate intertemporal trade – the exchange of goods and services for claims. There are likely to be gains from trade of that kind as from ordinary trade. What, then, are the problems? This paper considers five scenarios, notably one where net savings of the surplus countries decline so that the world real interest rate rises, and another where the US fiscal deficit is reduced, so that the world real interest rate falls and there could be a worldwide aggregate demand problem, essentially caused by the high net savings of the surplus countries. The paper reviews the reasons for the large surpluses in terms of savings and investment ratios (especially China) and also discusses the long‐term problem for the United States. While four of the scenarios involve a decline in the dollar, they do not necessarily imply a sudden – and even ‘disruptive’– dollar crisis.

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  • W. Max Corden, 2007. "Those Current Account Imbalances: A Sceptical View1," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 363-382, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:30:y:2007:i:3:p:363-382
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2007.01000.x
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    1. Richard N. Cooper, 2006. "Understanding global imbalances," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 51.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Corden, W. Max, 1995. "Economic Policy, Exchange Rates, and the International System," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226115917, December.
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    6. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2005:i:mar10 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ben S. Bernanke, 2005. "The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit," Speech 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Corden, W. Max., 1997. "Trade Policy and Economic Welfare," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780198775348.
    9. William R. Cline, 2005. "United States as a Debtor Nation, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3993, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Mignon, Valérie, 2016. "How Do Macroeconomic Imbalances Interact? Evidence From A Panel Var Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(7), pages 1717-1741, October.
    3. Russell Jesse R., 2012. "Disequilibrium in the International Balance of Payments," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, May.
    4. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar, 2012. "The balance-of-payments constraint on economic growth in a long-term perspective: Spain, 1850–2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 105-117.
    5. W. Max Corden, 2009. "The World Credit Crisis: Understanding It, and What to Do," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 385-400, March.
    6. Abdurohman & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2017. "The Behavior Of Fiscal Policy In Indonesia In Response To Economic Cycles," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 377-401, June.
    7. Beretta, Silvio & Iannini, Giuseppe, 2007. "A US-EU Economic Block versus China? How Viable is it? A Note," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 409-420.
    8. Martin Wolf, 2008. "Comments On ‘The Global Imbalances: What Is The Problem?’, The 2007 Wincott Lecture, Given By Max Corden," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 59-62, June.
    9. James Xiaohe Zhang, 2011. "RMB Appreciation or Fiscal Stimulus, and their Policy Implications," Chapters, in: Lilai Xu (ed.), China’s Economy in the Post-WTO Environment, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. W. Max Corden, 2009. "China's Exchange Rate Policy, Its Current Account Surplus and the Global Imbalances," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(541), pages 430-441, November.

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