IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iek/wpaper/0601.html

Transpacific Trade Imbalances: Causes and Cures

Author

Listed:
  • Jong-Wha Lee
  • Warwick J. McKibbin
  • Yung Chul Park

Abstract

This paper explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances. We find the fundamental cause of trade imbalance since 1997 is changes in saving-investment gaps, attributed to the surge of the U.S fiscal deficits and the decline of East Asia's private investment after the 1997 financial crisis. Our simulation results show that a revaluation of East Asia's exchange rates by 10 percent (effectively a shift in monetary policy) cannot resolve the imbalances. We find East Asia's concerted efforts to stimulate aggregate demand can have significant impacts on trade balances globally, but the impact on the US trade balance is not large. US fiscal contraction is estimated to have large impacts on the US trade position overall and on the bilateral trade balances with East Asian economies. These results suggest that in order to improve the transpacific imbalance, acroeconomic adjustment will need to be made on both sides of the Pacific.

Suggested Citation

  • Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin & Yung Chul Park, 2006. "Transpacific Trade Imbalances: Causes and Cures," Discussion Paper Series 0601, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    • Handle: RePEc:iek:wpaper:0601
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econ.korea.ac.kr/~ri/WorkingPapers/w0601.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    2. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    4. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Demirel, Erhan & Ommeren, Jos van & Rietveld, Piet, 2010. "A matching model for the backhaul problem," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 549-561, May.
    2. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Sun, Chia-Hung, 2010. "The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 705-716, May.
    3. Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2007. "Domestic Investment and External Imbalances in East Asia," CAMA Working Papers 2007-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Ho, Sy-Hoa & Nguyen, Trung-Thanh & To-The, Nguyen, 2020. "Asymmetry and Symmetry of real exchange rate effect on the bilateral trade balance between Vietnam and the United States: aggregated and disaggregated levels of investigation," MPRA Paper 98416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bagnai, Alberto, 2009. "The role of China in global external imbalances: Some further evidence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 508-526, September.
    6. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Mary Leung, 2021. "US trade deficit, a reality check: New evidence incorporating asymmetric and non‐linear effects of exchange rate dynamics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 818-836, March.
    7. Soyoung Kim & Jong‐Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2018. "Asia's rebalancing and growth," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(10), pages 2709-2731, October.
    8. W. Max Corden, 2007. "Those Current Account Imbalances: A Sceptical View1," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 363-382, March.
    9. Gehlhar, Mark J. & Dohlman, Erik, 2006. "Macroeconomic and Global Growth Influences on the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21324, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Warwick J. McKibbin & Andrew B. Stoeckel, 2012. "Global Fiscal Consolidation," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 124-146, Winter/Sp.
    11. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Sun, Chia-Hung D., 2016. "The role of savings rate in exchange rate and trade imbalance nexus: Cross-countries evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 1017-1025.
    12. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2013. "A Global Approach to Energy and the Environment," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 995-1068, Elsevier.
    13. Yi‐Bin Chiu & Chia‐Hung Sun, 2009. "Economic interdependence and bilateral trade imbalance across the Taiwan Strait," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(4), pages 411-432, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. Mc Kibbin & Yung Chul Park, 2004. "Les déséquilibres transpacifiques vus d’Asie de l’Est," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 77(4), pages 81-109.
    2. Warwick J. McKibbin & David Pearce & Alison Stagman, 2004. "Long Run Projections for Climate Change Scenarios," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0405, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.
    3. Duclos, Jean-Yves, 1998. "Social evaluation functions, economic isolation and the Suits index of progressivity," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 103-121, July.
    4. Duclos, J.Y., 1995. "Economic Isolation, Inequality, and the Suits Index of Progressivity," Papers 9510, Laval - Recherche en Politique Economique.
    5. Vratislav Izák, 2008. "Udržitelnost veřejných financí a dynamická efektivnost [Public finance sustainability and dynamic efficiency]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(2), pages 162-181.
    6. Fidelina Natividad-Carlos, 2016. "Time inconsistency: the Phillips curve example, an analysis for intermediate macroeconomics," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 53(1), pages 97-126, June.
    7. Andersen, Torben M., 2005. "Product market integration, wage dispersion and unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 379-406, June.
    8. McCallum, Bennett T, 2000. "Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 870-904, November.
    9. Alfred Steinherr & Alessandro Cisotta & Erik Klar & Kenan Sehovic, 2006. "Liberalizing Cross-Border Capital Flows: How Effective Are Institutional Arrangements against Crisis in Southeast Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 6, Asian Development Bank.
    10. Papaioannou, Elias & Portes, Richard & Siourounis, Gregorios, 2006. "Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 508-547, December.
    11. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    12. Philipp Engler & Michael Fidora & Christian Thimann, 2009. "External Imbalances and the US Current Account: How Supply‐Side Changes Affect an Exchange Rate Adjustment," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 927-941, November.
    13. Olivier Blanchard, 2000. "What Do We Know about Macroeconomics that Fisher and Wicksell Did Not?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(4), pages 1375-1409.
    14. Mohsin, Mohammed, 2006. "Durability in consumption and the dynamics of the current account," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 143-162, January.
    15. Amitrajeet Batabyal & Peter Nijkamp, 2014. "Innovation, Decentralization, and Planning in a Multi-Region Model of Schumpeterian Economic Growth," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 605-628, December.
    16. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto, 2013. "Managing Financial Integration and Capital Mobility—Policy Lessons from the Past Two Decades," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 636-653, September.
    17. Özer Karagedikli & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "RBCs AND DSGEs: THE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY AND EVIDENCE," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 113-136, February.
    18. Faruk Balli & Bent E. Sørensen, 2006. "The Impact of the EMU on Channels of Risk Sharing between Member Countries," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources, pages 399-429, Izmir University of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iek:wpaper:0601. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kim, Jisoo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ierkukr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.