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Long Run Projections For Climate Change Scenarios

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  • Warwick McKibbin
  • David Pearce
  • Alison Stegman

Abstract

The prediction of future temperature increases depends critically on the projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. Yet there is a vigorous debate about how these projections should be undertaken and how reasonable is the approach of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which forms the basis of nearly all recent analyses of the impacts of climate change. In particular there has been significant criticism by Ian Castles and David Henderson regarding the plausibility of some scenarios. This paper explores a range of methodological issues surrounding projecting greenhouse emissions over the next century. It points out that understanding future emissions, requires a framework that deals with the sources of economic growth and allows for endogenous structural change. It also explores the role of “convergence” assumptions and the debate regarding the use of purchasing power parity (PPP) measurement versus market exchange rate (MER) measurement of income differentials.

Suggested Citation

  • Warwick McKibbin & David Pearce & Alison Stegman, 2004. "Long Run Projections For Climate Change Scenarios," CAMA Working Papers 2004-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2004-01
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Exchange Rates And Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-45, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2004.
    2. Pant, Hom M. & Fisher, Brian S., 2007. "Alternative measures of output in global economic-environmental models: Purchasing power parity or market exchange rates? -- Comment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 375-389, May.
    3. Warwick J. McKIBBIN, 2006. "Environmental Consequences of Rising Energy Use in China," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(1), pages 157-174, June.
    4. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2005. "Analysing Convergence with a Multi-Country Computable General Equilibrium Model: PPP versus Mer," Energy & Environment, , vol. 16(6), pages 901-921, November.
    5. Valentina Bosetti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2007. "The WITCH Model. Structure, Baseline, Solutions," Working Papers 2007.10, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Bosello, Francesco & Roson, Roberto & Tol, Richard S.J., 2006. "Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 579-591, June.
    7. Warwick J. McKIBBIN, 2006. "Environmental Consequences of Rising Energy Use in China," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(1), pages 157-174.
    8. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pearce, David & Stegman, Alison, 2007. "Long term projections of carbon emissions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 637-653.
    9. Warwick J. McKibbin & David Pearce & Alison Stegman, 2004. "Can the IPCC SRES Be Improved?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 15(3), pages 351-362, July.
    10. Méjean, Aurélie & Hope, Chris, 2010. "Modelling the costs of energy crops: A case study of US corn and Brazilian sugar cane," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 547-561, January.
    11. Warwick J. Mckibbin, 2005. "Climate Change Policy for India," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Raghbendra Jha (ed.), Economic Growth, Economic Performance and Welfare in South Asia, chapter 7, pages 121-150, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Duval, Romain & de la Maisonneuve, Christine, 2010. "Long-run growth scenarios for the world economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 64-80, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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