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Convergence, Endogenous Growth, and Productivity Disturbances

  • Charles Ka-Yui Leung
  • Danny T., Quah

Kelly (1992) has recently shown that evidence on convergence cannot be taken as evidence against endogenous growth in general. This study uses a well-known class of stochastic growth models to show other difficulties with traditional empirical studies of convergence. Key parameters typically cannot be estimated consistently in cross-section regressions. When the parameters are assumed known, implications for convergence are unavailable except under restrictive and economically unmotivated assumptions. Those same assumptions that relate key parameters to cross-country convergence render cross-section regressions impossible to estimate consistently.

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Paper provided by Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number _070.

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Date of creation: Aug 1996
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Handle: RePEc:chk:cuhked:_070
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  1. Quah, Danny T, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1045-55, July.
  2. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 9401r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1993. "Making a Miracle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(2), pages 251-72, March.
  4. Barro, R. & Mankiw, G., 1992. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1615, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Kelly, Morgan, 1992. "On endogenous growth with productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 47-56, October.
  6. Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  7. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
  8. Paul M. Romer, 1994. "The Origins of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 3-22, Winter.
  9. Quah, Danny T, 1996. " Convergence Empirics across Economies with (Some) Capital Mobility," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 95-124, March.
  10. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  11. Galor, Oded, 1996. "Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1056-69, July.
  12. Ben-David, Dan, 1994. "Convergence Clubs and Diverging Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 922, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Danny Quah, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0280, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  14. Danny Quah, 1996. "Twin peaks : growth and convergence in models of distribution dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2278, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  15. Friedman, Milton, 1992. "Do Old Fallacies Ever Die?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2129-32, December.
  16. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard O., 1993. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? : A time series analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 335-346, November.
  17. den Haan, Wouter J., 1995. "Convergence in stochastic growth models The importance of understanding why income levels differ," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 65-82, February.
  18. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  20. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  21. Canova, Fabio & Marcet, Albert, 1995. "The Poor Stay Poor: Non-Convergence Across Countries and Regions," CEPR Discussion Papers 1265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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