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Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence

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  • Quah, Danny

Abstract

The convergence hypothesis has generated a huge empirical literature: this paper critically reviews some of the earlier key findings, clarifies their implications, and relates them to more recent results. Particular attention is devoted to interpreting convergence empirics. The main findings are: (1) The much-heralded uniform 2% rate of convergence could arise for reasons unrelated to the dynamics of economic growth. (2) Usual empirical analyses - cross-section (conditional) convergence regressions, time-series modelling, panel data analysis - can be misleading for understanding convergence; a model of polarization in economic growth clarifies those difficulties. (3) The data, more revealingly modelled, show persistence and immobility across countries: some evidence supports Baumol's idea of `convergence clubs'; some evidence shows the poor getting poorer, and the rich richer, with the middle class vanishing. (4) Convergence, unambiguous up to sampling error, is observed across US states.

Suggested Citation

  • Quah, Danny, 1995. "Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1140, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1140
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carmela Martin & Francisco J. Velazquez & Bernard Funck, 2001. "European Integration and Income Convergence : Lessons for Central and Eastern European Countries," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13968, April.
    2. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    3. Lant Pritchett, 1997. "Divergence, Big Time," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 3-17, Summer.
    4. Valentina Bosetti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2007. "The WITCH Model. Structure, Baseline, Solutions," Working Papers 2007.10, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. Lima, Luiz Renato & Notini, Hilton Hostalácio & Reis Gomes, Fábio Augusto, 2010. "Empirical Evidence on Convergence Across Brazilian States," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 64(2), June.
    6. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February.
    7. Kocenda, Evzen & Papell, David H, 1997. "Inflation Convergence within the European Union: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 189-198, July.
    8. Burnett, J. Wesley, 2016. "Club convergence and clustering of U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 62-84.
    9. Marie-Eve Mulquin & Katja Senger, 2011. "Interregional transfers and economic convergence of regions," Serie Politique Economique 58, Facultes Universitaires Notre-Dame de la Paix, Centre de Recherches en Economie Regionale et Politique Economique.
    10. de la Fuente, Angel, 2002. "On the sources of convergence: A close look at the Spanish regions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 569-599, March.
    11. Julia Korosteleva & Colin Lawson, 2010. "The Belarusian case of transition: whither financial repression?," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 33-53.
    12. Mahmoud A. El-Gamal & Deockhyun Ryu, 2013. "Nonstationarity and Stochastic Stability of Relative Income Clubs," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59(4), pages 756-775, December.
    13. Peng Bin, 2016. "Dynamic Development of Regional Disparity in Mainland China: An Experimental Study Based on a Multidimensional Index," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(12), pages 1-28, December.
    14. Kieran McMorrow & Werner Roger, 2011. "Catching-up Prospects After the Crisis for the EU’s CESEE Region," Chapters,in: Post-Crisis Growth and Integration in Europe, chapter 4 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Rosa Capolupo, 2005. "THE NEW GROWTH THEORIES AND THEIR EMPIRICS, Discussion Paper in Economics, University of Glasgow, N. 2005-04 (http://www.gla.ac.uk/Acad/Economics," GE, Growth, Math methods 0506003, EconWPA.
    16. Warwick J. McKibbin & David Pearce & Alison Stagman, 2004. "Long Run Projections for Climate Change Scenarios," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0405, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.
    17. FE, Doukouré Charles, 2010. "Réduction de Droits de Douane et Convergence Réelle dans l'UEMOA
      [Tariffs Reduction and Real Convergence in WAEMU]
      ," MPRA Paper 26763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Rosa Capolupo, "undated". "The New Growth Theoris and their Empirics," Working Papers 2005_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    19. Jonathan Temple, 1995. "Testing the augmented Solow Model," Economics Papers 18 & 106., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    20. Mădălina AVRAM & Constantin POSTOIU, 2016. "Territorial patterns of development in the European Union," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 77-88, Spring.
    21. Carone, Giuseppe & Denis, Cécile & Mc Morrow, Kieran & Mourre, Gilles & Röger, Werner, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," MPRA Paper 744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Freeman, Donald G. & Yerger, David B., 2001. "Interpreting cross-section and time-series tests of convergence: the case of labor productivity in manufacturing," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 593-607.
    23. Coulombe, Serge & Lee, Frank C., 1998. "Évolution à long terme de la convergence régionale au Canada," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 74(1), pages 5-27, mars.
    24. Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2012. "Convergence crisis: economic crisis and convergence in the European Union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 297-322, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Evolving Distributions; Galton's Fallacy; Polarization; Regional Dynamics; Stochastic Kernal; Unit Root;

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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