Convergence And Per Capita Carbon Emissions
The notion of "convergence" of economic variables across countries is a useful concept and in the case of income per capita, a well studied area. If there is empirical evidence of convergence of some economic variables across countries, then our ability to prdict the future (or at least difference between countries in the future) is enhanced. It is common in long run projections of climate change to base these projections on some notion of full or partial convergence whether in incomes per capita, teachnologies, energy intensities, emissions intensities of energy or per capita carbon emissions. But what is the empirical basis of these assumptions? This paper explores the historical experience of a range of variables related to climate change projections with the goal of examining if there is any evidence historically of convergence. The focus of the paper is on per capita carbon emissions from fossil fuel use because this is the basis of many projections as well as a variety of policy proposals. We also present evidence on GDP per capita, energy intensity of output and the emissions intensity o energy supply. We find strong evidence that the wide variety of assumptions about "convergence" commonly used in emissions projections are not based on empirically observed phenomena.
|Date of creation:||May 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Crawford Building, Lennox Crossing, Building #132, Canberra ACT 2601|
Phone: +61 2 6125 4705
Fax: +61 2 6125 5448
Web page: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sala-i-martin, X., 1995.
"The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis,"
734, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1254, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995. "The classical approach to convergence analysis," Economics Working Papers 117, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002.
"15 Years of New Growth Economics : What Have we Learnt?,"
Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy),
Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(2), pages 5-15, August.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002. "15 Years of New Growth Economics: What Have We Learnt?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 172, Central Bank of Chile.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2001. "15 years of new growth economics: What have we learnt?," Economics Working Papers 620, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2002.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991.
"Convergence Across States and Regions,"
629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
- Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1994.
"Regional Cohesion: Evidence and Theories of Regional Growth and Convergence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1075, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X., 1996. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1325-1352, June.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1994. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," Economics Working Papers 104, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995.
"Convergence in International Output,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
- Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999.
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355643, 1.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2005-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cama Admin)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.