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Convergence And Per Capita Carbon Emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Warwick J. McKibbin
  • Alison Stegman

Abstract

The notion of "convergence" of economic variables across countries is a useful concept and in the case of income per capita, a well studied area. If there is empirical evidence of convergence of some economic variables across countries, then our ability to predict the future (or at least differences between countries in the future) is enhanced. It is common in long run projections of climate change to base these projections on some notion of full or partial convergence whether in incomes per capita, technologies, energy intensities, emissions intensities of energy or per capita carbon emissions. But what is the empirical basis of these assumptions? This paper explores the historical experience of a range of variables related to climate change projections with the goal of examining if there is any evidence historically of convergence. The focus of the paper is on per capita carbon emissions from fossil fuel use because this is the basis of many projections as well as a variety of policy proposals. We also present evidence on GDP per capita, energy intensity of output and the emissions intensity of energy supply. We find strong evidence that the wide variety of assumptions about "convergence" commonly used in emissions projections are not based on empirically observed phenomena.

Suggested Citation

  • Warwick J. McKibbin & Alison Stegman, 2005. "Convergence And Per Capita Carbon Emissions," CAMA Working Papers 2005-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2005-10
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2017-02/10_mckibbin_stegman_2005.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X., 1996. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1325-1352, June.
    2. Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999. "Nonparametric Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355643.
    3. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X, 1996. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1019-1036, July.
    4. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    5. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
    6. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002. "15 Years of New Growth Economics : What Have we Learnt?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(2), pages 5-15, August.
    7. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Huikun Hong & Deti Xie & Heping Liao & Bo Tu & Jun Yang, 2017. "Land Use Efficiency and Total Factor Productivity—Distribution Dynamic Evolution of Rural Living Space in Chongqing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(4), pages 1-16, March.
    2. D.S. Prasada Rao & Alicia Rambaldi & Howard Doran, 2008. "A Method to Construct World Tables of Purchasing Power Parities and Real Incomes Based on Multiple Benchmarks and Auxiliary Information: Analytical and Empirical Results," CEPA Working Papers Series WP052008, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    3. David I. Stern, 2005. "The Effect of NAFTA on Energy and Environmental Efficiency in Mexico," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0511, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
    4. Michael Delgado, 2013. "A smooth coefficient model of carbon emissions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1049-1071, December.
    5. Jobert, Thomas & Karanfil, Fatih & Tykhonenko, Anna, 2010. "Convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions in the EU: Legend or reality?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1364-1373, November.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6801 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Marco Barassi & Matthew Cole & Robert Elliott, 2008. "Stochastic Divergence or Convergence of Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Re-examining the Evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 121-137, May.
    8. Alicia N. Rambaldi & D.S. Prasada Rao & K. Renuka Ganegodage, 2009. "Spatial Autocorrelation and Extrapolation of Purchasing Power Parities. Modelling and Sensitivity Analysis," CEPA Working Papers Series WP012009, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    9. McKitrick, Ross & Wood, Joel, 2013. "Co-fluctuation patterns of per capita carbon dioxide emissions: The role of energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-12.
    10. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "On the non-convergence of energy intensities: Evidence from a pair-wise econometric approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 641-650, January.
    11. repec:eee:eneeco:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:365-372 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Wang, Yiming & Zhang, Pei & Huang, Dake & Cai, Changda, 2014. "Convergence behavior of carbon dioxide emissions in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 75-80.
    13. Nilgun Yavuz & Veli Yilanci, 2013. "Convergence in Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions Among G7 Countries: A TAR Panel Unit Root Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(2), pages 283-291, February.
    14. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pearce, David & Stegman, Alison, 2007. "Long term projections of carbon emissions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 637-653.
    15. Joakim Westerlund & Syed Basher, 2008. "Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Using a Century of Panel Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 109-120, May.
    16. Mariam Camarero & Yurena Mendoza & Javier Ordóñez, 2011. "Re-examining CO2 emissions. Is the assessment of convergence meaningless?," Working Papers 2011/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    17. Alison Stegman, 2011. "Sectoral Productivity, Structural Change and Convergence," CAMA Working Papers 2011-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    18. Myriam Nourry, 2009. "Re-Examining the Empirical Evidence for Stochastic Convergence of Two Air Pollutants with a Pair-Wise Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(4), pages 555-570, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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