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United States‐China Trade At The Commodity Level And The Yuan‐Dollar Exchange Rate

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  • MOHSEN BAHMANI‐OSKOOEE
  • YONGQING WANG

Abstract

In 1978 when China began her economic reforms of moving toward a free market economy and trade liberalization, the trade balance between China and the United States was in favor of the United States in the magnitude of 600 million dollars. Over the 1978–2002 period, however, it has changed in favor of China such that in 2002 China had a surplus of 120 billion dollars against the United States. Over the same period, the Chinese yuan has depreciated almost fourfold. Is real depreciation of the yuan against the dollar a factor in the trade between the two countries? In this article, we employ data at the industry level (88 two‐ and three‐digit industries) and recent advances in error‐correction modeling to show that indeed the real yuan‐dollar rate has played a significant role. This contradicts most previous research that used trade data at the aggregate level. (JEL F31, F32, F14)

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2007. "United States‐China Trade At The Commodity Level And The Yuan‐Dollar Exchange Rate," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(3), pages 341-361, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:25:y:2007:i:3:p:341-361
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7287.2007.00049.x
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    2. Nkenchor Neville Igue & Toyin Segun Ogunleye, 2014. "Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Nigeria," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(2), pages 347-358, June.
    3. Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2009. "Assessing the Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Bilateral Agricultural Trade," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(2), pages 187-203, June.
    4. Ho, Sy-Hoa & Nguyen, Trung-Thanh & To-The, Nguyen, 2020. "Asymmetry and Symmetry of real exchange rate effect on the bilateral trade balance between Vietnam and the United States: aggregated and disaggregated levels of investigation," MPRA Paper 98416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua, 2014. "Effect of exchange rate volatility on industry trade flows between Malaysia and China," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 626-655, August.
    6. Abule Mehare & Abdi K. Edriss, 2013. "Evaluation of the Effect of Exchange Rate Variability on the Export of Ethiopia’s Agricultural Product: A Case of Coffee," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(2), pages 171-183, May.
    7. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michel, 2011. "The relationship between exchange rates and International Trade: A review of economic literature," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-17, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    8. Victor Pontines & Richard Pomfret, 2014. "Exchange rate policy and regional trade agreements: a case of conflicted interests?," Chapters, in: Richard Baldwin & Masahiro Kawai & Ganeshan Wignaraja (ed.), A World Trade Organization for the 21st Century, chapter 7, pages 157-181, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Chi, Junwook, 2016. "Exchange rate and transport cost sensitivities of bilateral freight flows between the US and China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-13.
    10. Hurley, Dene T. & Papanikolaou, Nikolaos, 2021. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis of U.S.-China commodity trade dynamics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 454-467.
    11. Baek, Jungho, 2020. "An asymmetric approach to the oil prices-trade balance nexus: New evidence from bilateral trade between Korea and her 14 trading partners," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 199-209.
    12. Bhattarai, Keshab & Mallick, Sushanta, 2013. "Impact of China's currency valuation and labour cost on the US in a trade and exchange rate model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 40-59.
    13. Alexey Mikhaylov & Ishaq M. Bhatti & Hasan Dinçer & Serhat Yüksel, 2024. "Integrated decision recommendation system using iteration-enhanced collaborative filtering, golden cut bipolar for analyzing the risk-based oil market spillovers," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(1), pages 305-338, January.
    14. Wang, Chun-Hsuan & Lin, Chun-Hung A. & Yang, Chih-Hai, 2012. "Short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate change on trade balance: Evidence from China and its trading partners," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 266-273.
    15. M. Ershad HUSSAIN & Mahfuzul HAQUE, 2014. "Is the J-Curve a Reality in Developing Countries?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 231-240, December.
    16. Shengliang Zhao & Lixin Liu, 2023. "Novel evidence on the asymmetric J‐curve in the commodity trade between Korea and China: evidence from 75 industries," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(2), pages 142-164, November.
    17. Yi‐Bin Chiu & Chia‐Hung Sun, 2009. "Economic interdependence and bilateral trade imbalance across the Taiwan Strait," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(4), pages 411-432, September.
    18. Enzo Cassino & David Oxley, 2013. "How Does the Exchange Rate Affect the Real Economy? A Literature Survey," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/26, New Zealand Treasury.
    19. Stephen Devadoss & Amy Hilland & Ron Mittelhammer & John Foltz, 2014. "The effects of the Yuan-dollar exchange rate on agricultural commodity trade between the United States, China, and their competitors," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(S1), pages 23-37, November.
    20. Dene T. Hurley & Nikolaos Papanikolaou, 2018. "An Investigation of China‐U.S. Bilateral Trade and Exchange Rate Changes Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(2), pages 162-179, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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