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Does Devaluation of the Renminbi Improve China’s Balance of Trade?


  • Zhang, Zhaoyong

    () (Department of Economics National University of Singapore)


The objective of this paper is to test the relationship between the exchange value of the renminbi (RMB) and China’s trade balance over the 1991-1996 period. Using some recent econometric techniques designed to evaluate the existence and the direction of causality, we find no evidence to support the hypothesis that the new reformed foreign trade regime has made the balance of trade much responsive to changes in the exchange rate. JEL Classification: F31, F14, P22

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Zhaoyong, 1998. "Does Devaluation of the Renminbi Improve China’s Balance of Trade?," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 51(3), pages 437-445.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0301

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Halushka, Andrij & Savluk, Sergei & Wörgötter, Andreas, 1994. "Ukrainian Hyperinflation: History, Analysis, Recommendations," East European Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    2. Heiner, Ronald A, 1983. "The Origin of Predictable Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 560-595, September.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Cukierman, Alex & Edwards, Sebastian & Tabellini, Guido, 1992. "Seigniorage and Political Instability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 537-555, June.
    5. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    6. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chi-Wei Su, 2012. "The relationship between exchange rate and macroeconomic variables in China," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 33-56.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2007. "United States-China Trade At The Commodity Level And The Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(3), pages 341-361, July.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2010. "S-Curve dynamics of trade between U.S. and China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 212-223, June.
    4. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2014. "Trade Balance, Foreign Exchange and Macroeconomic Impacts: An Empirical Assessment for China and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 59539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Aug 2014.
    5. Wang, Yongqing & Wan, Guanghua, 2008. "China?s Trade Imbalances: The Role of FDI," WIDER Working Paper Series 103, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Artatrana Ratha & Eungmin Kang & Mary Edwards, 2008. "Does an Undervalued Currency Promote Growth? Evidence from China," Working Papers 2008-2 Classification- F3, Saint Cloud State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "The dynamic relationship between real exchange rates, real interest rates and foreign exchange reserves: empirical evidence from China," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(9), pages 639-651.
    8. Chan, Tze-Haw & Hooy, Chee-Wooi, 2010. "China-Malaysia’s Trading and Exchange Rate: Complementary or Conflicting Features?," MPRA Paper 25546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Siong-Hook, Law & Tze-Haw, Chan, 2015. "The impact of the Renminbi real exchange rate on ASEAN disaggregated exports to China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 253-259.
    10. Chan, Tze-Haw & Hooy, Chee-Wooi, 2011. "China-Malaysia’s long run trading and exchange rate: complementary or conflicting?," MPRA Paper 33585, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • P22 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Prices


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