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Bilateral J-Curve between India and Her Trading Partners: A Quantitative Perspective

Author

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  • Aruna Kumar Dash

    (Economics, IBS Hyderabad, Dontanapalli, Shankerpalli Road, Hyderabad, 501504, AP, India)

Abstract

This study examines the short-run and long-run effects of real exchange rate changes on India’s trade balance vis-à-vis four of her major trading partners, viz., the US, the UK, Japan and Germany within a cointegrating vector error correction model. Cointegration estimates suggest a long-run equilibrium relationship among trade balance, real exchange rate, domestic and foreign income in each country. This study also applied generalized impulse response functions to trace the effect of a one-time shock to the real exchange rate on trade balance. Although considerable variations exists in the results, overall, the generalized impulse response functions suggest that J-curve effect is visible in India’s bilateral trade with both Japan and Germany, but the Marshall-Lerner condition appears to hold in the context of India-Germany trade. On the contrary, we did not get J-curve in India’s trade with the US, and the UK, rather we got S-curve effect in India-UK trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Aruna Kumar Dash, 2013. "Bilateral J-Curve between India and Her Trading Partners: A Quantitative Perspective," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 318-338, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:43:y:2013:i:3:p:318-338
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Waseem Ahmad Parray & Javed Ahmad Bhat & Effat Yasmin & Sajad Ahmad Bhat, 2023. "Exchange Rate Changes and the J-curve Effect: Asymmetric Evidence from a Panel of Five Emerging Market Economies," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 58(4), pages 524-543, November.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2017. "Asymmetric response of the US–India trade balance to exchange rate changes: Evidence from 68 industries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2226-2254, October.
    3. Mohd Alsaleh & Abdul Samad Abdul-Rahim, 2018. "The Economic Determinants of Bioenergy Trade Intensity in the EU-28: A Co-Integration Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-20, February.
    4. Kurtovic Safet & Halili Blerim & Maxhuni Nehat, 2017. "Bilateral Trade Elasticity of Serbia and Her Trading Partners," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(3), pages 181-204, December.
    5. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain, 2018. "Estimation des élasticités du commerce extérieur dans des économies en développement riches en ressources naturelles : le cas des pays de la CEMAC [Estimation of trade elasticities in resources ric," MPRA Paper 116378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2017. "Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach And Bilateral J-Curve: India Versus Her Trading Partners," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 472-483, July.
    7. Peguero, Anadel G. & Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2016. "Condición Marshall-Lerner y el efecto Curva J: Evidencias para la República Dominicana [Marshall-Lerner Condition and J-Curve Effect: Evidence for the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 71535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Sayeeda Bano & Gazi Hassan, 2018. "An Empirical Examination of the J-Curve: New Zealand's Bilateral Trade with Selected Countries," Working Papers in Economics 18/05, University of Waikato.
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Rodrigo Costamagna & Gustavo Rossini, 2016. "Competitive Devaluations in Commodity-Based Economies: Colombia and the Pacific Alliance Group," CESifo Working Paper Series 5907, CESifo.
    10. Yannick Bineau, 2016. "Real exchange rate and bilateral trade balance of Cambodia: A panel investigation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 895-900.
    11. Safet Kurtovic & Blerim Halili & Nehat Maxhuni, 2017. "Bilateral Trade Elasticity of Serbia: Is There a J-Curve Effect?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(281), pages 185-210.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    J-Curve; Trade balance; Marshall-Learner condition; Cointegration; Generalized impulse response function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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