Do Emissions and Income Have a Common Trend? A Country-Specific, Time-Series, Global Analysis, 1970-2008
This paper uses Vector Autoregressions that allow for nonstationarity and cointegration to investigate the dynamic relation between income and emissions in the period 1970-2008, for all world countries. We consider three emissions compounds, namely CO2, SO2 and a composite global warming index (GWP100). These emissions include energy-related activities with a share varying from 60% (GWP100) to almost 90% (SO2). For all chemical compounds, it is found that for over two thirds of cases income and emissions are driven by unrelated random walks with drift, at 5% signiﬁcance level. For one quarter of the cases the variables are found to be driven by a common random walk with drift. Finally, for the remaining 4.5% of cases the variables are trend-stationary. Tests of Granger-causality show evidence of both directions of causality. For the case of unrelated stochastic trends, one ﬁnds a predominance of emissions causing income (in growth rates), which accords with a production-function rather than with a consumption-function interpretation of the emissions-income relation. The evidence challenges the main implications of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, namely that the dominant direction of causality should be from income to emissions, and that for increasing levels of income, emissions should tend to decrease.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.rcfea.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985.
"Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
- David I. Stern, 2003.
"The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve,"
Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics
0302, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
- Stern, David I., 2004. "The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1419-1439, August.
- Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2007.
"Speed of Adjustment in Cointegrated Systems,"
9174, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Perman, Roger & Stern, David I., 2003.
"Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests that the Environmental Kuznets Curve does not exist,"
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(3), September.
- Roger Perman & David I. Stern, 2003. "Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests that the Environmental Kuznets Curve does not exist," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(3), pages 325-347, 09.
- Dufour, Jean-Marie & Pelletier, Denis & Renault, Eric, 2006.
"Short run and long run causality in time series: inference,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 337-362, June.
- DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & PELLETIER, Denis & RENAULT, Éric, 2003. "Short Run and Long Run Causality in Time Series : Inference," Cahiers de recherche 14-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & PELLETIER, Denis & RENAULT, Éric, 2003. "Short run and long run causality in time series: Inference," Cahiers de recherche 2003-16, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Jean-Marie Dufour & Denis Pelletier & Éric Renault, 2003. "Short Run and Long Run Causality in Time Series: Inference," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-61, CIRANO.
- Omtzigt Pieter & Paruolo Paolo, 2002.
Economics and Quantitative Methods
qf0203, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
- Coondoo, Dipankor & Dinda, Soumyananda, 2002. "Causality between income and emission: a country group-specific econometric analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 351-367, March.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Galeotti, Marzio & Lanza, Alessandro & Pauli, Francesco, 2006. "Reassessing the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: A robustness exercise," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 152-163, April.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Stern, David I., 2010. "Between estimates of the emissions-income elasticity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 2173-2182, September.
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
- Stern, David I., 2006. "An atmosphere-ocean time series model of global climate change," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 1330-1346, November.
- Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
- Müller-Fürstenberger, Georg & Wagner, Martin, 2006.
"Exploring the Environmental Kuznets Hypothesis. Theoretical and Econometric Problems,"
183, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Muller-Furstenberger, Georg & Wagner, Martin, 2007. "Exploring the environmental Kuznets hypothesis: Theoretical and econometric problems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 648-660, May.
- Coondoo, Dipankor & Dinda, Soumyananda, 2008. "Carbon dioxide emission and income: A temporal analysis of cross-country distributional patterns," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 375-385, April.
- Ang, James B., 2007. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and output in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4772-4778, October.
- Jurgen A. Doornik & H. Peter Boswijk, 2005. "Distribution approximations for cointegration tests with stationary exogenous regressors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 797-810.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:32_12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marco Savioli)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.