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Small Inflation Model of Mongolia (SIMOM)

Author

Listed:
  • Damdinsuren, Batnyam
  • Doojav, Gan-Ochir
  • Łyziak, Tomasz

Abstract

This paper describes a preliminary version of the small inflation model of Mongolia (SIMOM). The intended primary use of the model is analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism and the inflation process in Mongolia, estimation of dynamic responses of selected variables to different shocks hitting the Mongolian economy as well as forecasting macroeconomic categories (e.g. exchange rate, output gap, inflation) over a medium term, consistent with the lags in the monetary transmission mechanism. Conclusions from the paper are the following: Mongolian inflation is driven by a large number of shocks, both internal and external. At the same time the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism is relatively weak (although stronger than previously perceived). The exchange rate channel seems to be the most important channel of monetary transmission mechanism in Mongolia.

Suggested Citation

  • Damdinsuren, Batnyam & Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2008. "Small Inflation Model of Mongolia (SIMOM)," MPRA Paper 72139, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72139
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72139/2/simom.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tomasz Lysiak, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland: A Success Story?," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(2), pages 185-212.
    2. Bohdan Klos & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Tomasz Lyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wrobel, 2005. "Structural Econometric Models in Forecasting Inflation at the National Bank of Poland," NBP Working Papers 31, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    3. Viktor Kotlan, 2002. "Monetary Policy and the Term Spread in a Macro Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2002/01, Czech National Bank.
    4. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Meredith Beechey & Nargis Bharucha & Adam Cagliarini & David Gruen & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Turgut Kisinbay & Eric Parrado & Rodolfo Maino & Jorge I Canales Kriljenko, 2006. "Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 06/122, International Monetary Fund.
    7. discussant & Adrian R. Pagan, 2002. "What is a good macroeconomic model for a central bank to use? panel discussion," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    8. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 06/80, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Tatiana Fic & Marcin Kolasa & Adam Kot & Karol Murawski & Michal Rubaszek & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2005. "ECMOD Model of the Polish Economy," NBP Working Papers 36, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Frank Hespeler, 2013. "A VECM evaluation of monetary transmission in Uzbekistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 219-253, May.
    2. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Kaliappa Kalirajan, 2016. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in Mongolia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(4), pages 271-291, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation dynamics; Structural econometric model; inflation forecasting; Monetary transmission mechanism;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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