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Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland: A Success Story?

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  • Tomasz Lysiak

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Abstract

Qualitative survey data on inflation expectations can be quantified with the use of probability or regression methods. This paper presents the results of probability methods implemented to estimate numerical measures of Polish consumer inflation expectations. Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular interest to central banks, especially those pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of inflation targeting. One of commonly emphasised features of this strategy is that it has proved to be useful in anchoring inflation expectations. The paper proposes a manner in which the achievement of this goal may be assessed ex-post. It is argued that to make such an assessment it is not sufficient to examine changes in the level of inflation expectations relative to inflation target, but it is necessary to analyse in detail the formation of inflation expectations, in particular the degree to which requirements of rational expectations hypothesis, namely: unbiasedness and macroeconomic efficency, are fulfilled. The examination of consumer expectations in Poland leads to the conclusion that even if the adoption of inflation targeting in Poland in 1998 and the commitment of monetary authorities to reach price stability reflected in a fast disinflation process decreased the level of inflation expectations, it has not sufficiently increased their rationality yet. On the other hand, there appear some signs of consumer inflation expectations in Poland becoming slightly more forwardlooking in the most recent period.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz Lysiak, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland: A Success Story?," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(2), pages 185-212.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkaa:5l9vc405j3lr
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art3-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Lyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz, Joanna & Stanislawska, Ewa, 2007. "Central bank transparency and credibility: The case of Poland, 1998-2004," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-87, March.
    2. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2015. "Inflation Targeting and its Discontents: The Case of Poland," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 65(supplemen), pages 107-122, December.
    3. Tomasz Lyziak, 2014. "Inflation expectations in Poland, 2001–2013. Measurement and macroeconomic testing," NBP Working Papers 178, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    4. Tomasz Łyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wróbel, 2008. "Monetary Policy Transmission Poland: A study of the importance of interest rate and credit channels," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    5. Tomasz Łyziak, 2009. "Is Inflation Perceived by Polish Consumers Driven by Prices of Frequently Bought Goods and Services?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 51(1), pages 100-117, March.
    6. Damdinsuren, Batnyam & Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2008. "Small Inflation Model of Mongolia (SIMOM)," MPRA Paper 72139, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2008.

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