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Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico

  • Osakwe, Patrick
  • Schembri, Lawrence

This paper examines the impact of a collapsing exchange rate regime on output in an open economy in which shocks to capital flows and exports predominate. A sticky-price rational expectations model is used to compare the variability of output under the collapsing regime to that under alternative fixed and flexible regimes. Output is found to be most stable under a flexible rate. A counterfactual exercise is performed for Mexico, using the parallel market exchange rate as a proxy for the shadow flexible rate. The main finding is that, had Mexico been on a flexible rate for the past two decades, instead of a series of collapsing regimes, the variance of real output would have been reduced by half.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 99-10.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:99-10
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Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

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  1. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  2. A. James Meigs, 1997. "Mexican Monetary Lessons," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 17(1), pages 35-72, Spring/Su.
  3. Inci Ötker & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1995. "Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises; The Mexican Experience," IMF Working Papers 95/112, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
  6. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1992. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 357-394, June.
  7. Patrick Osakwe & Lawrence Schembri, 1998. "Currency crises and fixed exchange rates in the 1990s: A review," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1998(Autumn), pages 23-38.
  8. Goldberg, Linda S., 1991. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: shocks and biases," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 252-263, June.
  9. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  10. Sebastian Edwards, 1997. "The Mexican Peso Crisis? How Much Did We Know? When Did We Know It?," NBER Working Papers 6334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Laidler, David, 1999. "The Exchange Rate Regime and Canada's Monetary Order," Working Papers 99-7, Bank of Canada.
  12. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
  13. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1985. "Real Aspects of Exchange Rate Regime Choice with Collapsing Fixed Rates," NBER Working Papers 1603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1991. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 3919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
  16. Collins, Susan M., 1996. "On becoming more flexible: Exchange rate regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 117-138, October.
  17. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 253-316.
  18. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
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