IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/99-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Osakwe, Patrick
  • Schembri, Lawrence

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of a collapsing exchange rate regime on output in an open economy in which shocks to capital flows and exports predominate. A sticky-price rational expectations model is used to compare the variability of output under the collapsing regime to that under alternative fixed and flexible regimes. Output is found to be most stable under a flexible rate. A counterfactual exercise is performed for Mexico, using the parallel market exchange rate as a proxy for the shadow flexible rate. The main finding is that, had Mexico been on a flexible rate for the past two decades, instead of a series of collapsing regimes, the variance of real output would have been reduced by half.

Suggested Citation

  • Osakwe, Patrick & Schembri, Lawrence, 1999. "Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico," Staff Working Papers 99-10, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:99-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/wp99-10.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Goldberg, Linda S., 1991. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: shocks and biases," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 252-263, June.
    2. Flood, Robert P. & Hodrick, Robert J., 1986. "Real aspects of exchange rate regime choice with collapsing fixed rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 215-232.
    3. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 1-13.
    4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1992. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 357-394, June.
    5. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-166, February.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 473-500.
    7. Inci Ötker & Ceyla Pazarbaşioĝlu, 1996. "Speculative attacks and currency crises: The Mexican experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 535-552.
    8. A. James Meigs, 1997. "Mexican Monetary Lessons," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, pages 35-72.
    9. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, pages 253-316.
    10. Collins, Susan M., 1996. "On becoming more flexible: Exchange rate regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 117-138.
    11. Patrick Osakwe & Lawrence Schembri, 1998. "Currency crises and fixed exchange rates in the 1990s: A review," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1998(Autumn), pages 23-38.
    12. Inci Ötker & Ceyla Pazarbaşioĝlu, 1996. "Speculative attacks and currency crises: The Mexican experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 535-552.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, pages 73-96.
    14. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    15. Laidler, David, 1999. "The Exchange Rate Regime and Canada's Monetary Order," Staff Working Papers 99-7, Bank of Canada.
    16. Flood, Robert P. & Hodrick, Robert J., 1986. "Real aspects of exchange rate regime choice with collapsing fixed rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 215-232.
    17. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 235-264.
    18. Robert P Flood & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1991. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Working Papers 91/99, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    20. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    21. Sebastian Edwards, 1997. "The Mexican Peso Crisis? How Much Did We Know? When Did We Know It?," NBER Working Papers 6334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, pages 73-96.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kevin X.D. Huang & Thaneepanichskul Suchada, 2003. "Sources of Exchange Rate Fluctuations: The Cases of Mexico and Thailand in the Aftermaths of their Recent Currency Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, pages 375-400.
    2. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2008. "Purchasing Power Parity For Developing And Developed Countries. What Can We Learn From Non-Stationary Panel Data Models?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, pages 752-773.
    3. Matthieu Bussière & Sweta c Saxena & Camilo Tovar, 2010. "Chronicle of currency collapses: re-examining the effects on output," BIS Working Papers 314, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Bussière, Matthieu & Saxena, Sweta C. & Tovar, Camilo E., 2012. "Chronicle of currency collapses: Re examining the effects on output," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 680-708.
    5. Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2007. "Managing new-style currency crises: the swan diagram approach revisited," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., pages 583-606.
    6. Murray, John & Schembri, Lawrence & St-Amant, Pierre, 2003. "Revisiting the case for flexible exchange rates in North America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 207-240, August.
    7. Ella Oyono, Dieudonné, 2006. "Effets réels des régimes de change dans les pays en développement," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 82(3), pages 319-340, septembre.
    8. Giugale, Marcelo*Korobow, Adam, 2000. "Shock persistence and the choice of foreign exchange regime - an empirical note from Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2371, The World Bank.
    9. Conning, Jonathan H. & Robinson, James A., 2007. "Property rights and the political organization of agriculture," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 416-447.
    10. Agbeyegbe, Terence D. & Osakwe, Patrick N., 2005. "Real exchange rate volatility and the choice of regimes in emerging markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, pages 1005-1022.
    11. Ibrahim Chowdhury, 2004. "Sources of exchange rate fluctuations: empirical evidence from six emerging market countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 697-705.
    12. Anthony Chin & Hong Junjie, 2005. "The Location Decisions of Foreign Logistics Firms in China : Does Transport Network Capacity Matter?," Trade Working Papers 22568, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    13. Lafrance, Robert & St-Amant, Pierre, 2000. "Les zones monétaires optimales," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 76(4), pages 577-612, décembre.
    14. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:99-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.