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Why Clashes Between Internal and External Stability Goals End in Currency Crises, 1797-1994

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Anna J. Schwartz

Abstract

We argue that recent currency crises reflect clashes between fundamentals and pegged exchange rates, just as did crises in the past. We reject the view that crises reflect self-fulfilling prophecies that are not closely related to measured fundamentals. Doubts about the timing of a market attack on a currency are less important than the fact that it is bound to happen if a government's policies are inconsistent with pegged exchange rates. We base these conclusions on a review of currency crises in the historical record under metallic monetary regimes and of crises post-World War II under Bretton Woods, and since, in European and Latin American pegged exchange rate regimes.

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  • Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1996. "Why Clashes Between Internal and External Stability Goals End in Currency Crises, 1797-1994," NBER Working Papers 5710, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5710
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomson Fontaine, 2005. "Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies; A Comparative Empirical Treatment," IMF Working Papers 05/13, International Monetary Fund.
    2. repec:kap:iaecre:v:5:y:1999:i:3:p:277-288 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bordo, Michael D. & Macdonald, Ronald & Oliver, Michael J., 2009. "Sterling in crisis, 1964–1967," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 437-459, December.
    4. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 2000. "Measuring real economic effects of bailouts: historical perspectives on how countries in financial distress have fared with and without bailouts," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 81-167, December.
    5. Árvai, Zsófia & Vincze, János, 1998. "Valuták sebezhetősége pénzügyi válságok a kilencvenes években
      [Vulnerability of currencies financial crises in the nineties]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 509-533.
    6. Brière, Marie & Chapelle, Ariane & Szafarz, Ariane, 2012. "No contagion, only globalization and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1729-1744.
    7. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1996. "Price Level Targeting vs. Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?," NBER Working Papers 5719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1999. "Monetary policy regimes and economic performance: The historical record," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 149-234 Elsevier.
    9. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614 Elsevier.
    10. Kam-hon CHU & Bob Y. C. Chan & Chor-yiu Sin, 2000. "Contagion Effects, Informational Effects, and Economic Fundamentals: An Analysis of Exchange Rate Dynamics during the Asian Currency Crisis," Working Papers 022000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    11. Kobayashi, Teruyoshi, 2005. "A model of monetary unification under asymmetric information," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15.
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    14. David A. Steinberg & Karrie J. Koesel & Nicolas W. Thompson, 2015. "Political Regimes and Currency Crises," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 337-361, November.
    15. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, "undated". "Stopping "Hot Money" or Signaling Bad Policy? Capital Controls and the Onset of Currency Crises," EPRU Working Paper Series 00-14, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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    17. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Lestano,, 2015. "The internationalisation of financial crises: Banking and currency crises 1883–2008," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 29-47.
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    19. Ayala, Alfonso, 2011. "Una introducción a los modelos de crisis financieras
      [A introduction to models financial crisis]
      ," MPRA Paper 42411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Velimir Šonje, 2000. "Exchange Rate and Output in the Aftermath of the Great Depression and During the Transition Period in Central Europe," Working Papers 4, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    21. Dungey, M. & Jacobs, J.P.A.M. & Lestano, L., 2010. "The internationalisation of financial crises," Research Report 10002, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    22. Francisco Gil-Diaz, 1998. "The Origin of Mexico's 1994 Financial Crisis," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 17(3), pages 303-313, Winter.
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