IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/1992-073.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Losing Credibility: The Stabilization Blues

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Pablo Emilio Guidotti
  • Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont

Abstract

In exchange rate-based stabilization programs, credibility often follows a distinct time pattern. At first it rises as the highly visible nominal anchor provides a sense of stability and hopes run high for a permanent solution to the fiscal problems. Later, as the domestic currency appreciates in real terms and the fiscal problems are not fully resolved, the credibility of the program falls, sometimes precipitously. This paper develops a political-economy model that focuses on the evolution of credibility over time, and is consistent with the pattern just described. Inflation inertia and costly budget negotiations play a key role in the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Pablo Emilio Guidotti & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1992. "Losing Credibility: The Stabilization Blues," IMF Working Papers 1992/073, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1992/073
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=823
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Galiani & Daniel Heymann & Mariano Tommasi, 2002. "Missed Expectations: The Argentine Convertibility," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 515, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Stein, Ernesto H. & Streb, Jorge M., 1998. "Political stabilization cycles in high-inflation economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 159-180, June.
    3. Mondino, Guillermo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Tommasi, Mariano, 1996. "Recurrent High Inflation and Stabilization: A Dynamic Game," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(4), pages 981-996, November.
    4. Funke, Norbert, 1993. "Timing and sequencing of reforms: Competing views," Kiel Working Papers 552, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Maxime Menuet & Petros G. Sekeris, 2022. "Engaging in Wars of Attrition," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 147, pages 79-100.
    6. Pastine, Ivan, 2002. "Speculation and the decision to abandon a fixed exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 197-229, June.
    7. Maxime Menuet, 2020. "Is a Long War Desirable? Optimal Debt Concessions in Attrition Warfare," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 139, pages 105-130.
    8. Schweickert, Rainer, 1994. "Regional integration: A worthwhile strategy for catching up?," Kiel Working Papers 623, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Torsten Persson, 1992. "Politics and economic policy," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 62, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. Schweickert, Rainer, 1994. "Macroeconomic reforms in the Southern cone: lessons for developing and newly emerging market economies," Kiel Working Papers 614, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Pastor Jr., Manuel & Wise, Carol, 1999. "Stabilization and its Discontents: Argentina's Economic Restructuring in the 1990s," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 477-503, March.
    12. Schweickert, Rainer, 1995. "Currency reforms in the Former Soviet Union (FSU): on the importance of macroeconomic constraints," Kiel Working Papers 670, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Chang, Roberto, 2001. "Commitment, coordination failures, and delayed reforms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 123-144, February.
    14. Servén, Luis & Terra, María Cristina, 2003. "Comments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123385, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Delaying the Inevitable: Optimal Interest Rate Policy and BOP Crises," NBER Working Papers 7734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Martinelli, Cesar & Escorza, Raul, 2007. "When are stabilizations delayed? Alesina-Drazen revisited," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1223-1245, July.
    18. Yougbaré, Lassana, 2011. "Exchange rate arrangements and misalignments: contrasting words and deeds," MPRA Paper 32362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Langhammer, Rolf J. & Schweickert, Rainer, 1995. "The Mexican reform process: improving long-run perspectives and mastering short-run turbulences," Kiel Discussion Papers 255, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Lahiri, Amartya, 2000. "Disinflation programs under policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 351-373, April.
    21. Diehl, Markus, 1993. "Stabilization without crisis: The case of Vietnam," Kiel Working Papers 578, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    22. Cesar Martinelli, 2001. "Essays on Political Economy of Political Reform," Levine's Working Paper Archive 625018000000000135, David K. Levine.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; balance of payments; exchange rate; nominal interest rate; balance of payments crisis; step devaluation; real appreciation; devaluation rate; nominal devaluation; expected devaluation; Real exchange rates; Exchange rates; Inflation; Fiscal consolidation; Currencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1992/073. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.