Mean-reversion vs. adjustment to PPP: the two regimes of exchange rate dynamics under the EMS, 1979-1998
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997.
"Threshold Cointegration,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
- Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Working Papers 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Michael Artis & Dilip Nachane, 1990.
"Wages and prices in Europe: A test of the German leadership thesis,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 126(1), pages 59-77, March.
- Artis, Michael J & Nachane, Dilip M, 1989. "Wages and Prices in Europe: A Test of the German Leadership Thesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 296, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: Some evidence from the ERM," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1493-1523, September.
- repec:bla:scandj:v:96:y:1994:i:1:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hall, Stephen & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Switching error-correction models of house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-527, October.
- Edison, Hali J. & Fisher, Eric O'N, 1991.
"A long-run view of the European monetary system,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 53-70, March.
- Hali J. Edison & Eric Fisher, 1989. "A long-run view of the european monetary system," International Finance Discussion Papers 339, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Engel, Charles & Hakkio, Craig S, 1996.
"The Distribution of Exchange Rates in the EMS,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 55-67, January.
- Charles Engel & Craig S. Hakkio, 1994. "The Distribution of Exchange Rates in the EMS," NBER Working Papers 4834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles Engel & Craig S. Hakkio, 1994. "The distribution of exchange rates in the EMS," Research Working Paper 94-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993.
"Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
- Bertola, G. & Svensson, L.E., 1990. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," Papers 481, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," NBER Working Papers 3576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Knot, Klaas & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & de Haan, Jakob, 1998. "The Credibility of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 186-200, April.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Hung-Gay Fung & Kon S. Lai & Wai-Chung Lo, 1995. "Purchasing power parity under the European Monetary System," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 179-189, April.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1991.
"Exchange Rates, Policy Convergence, and the European Monetary System,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(3), pages 553-558, August.
- R Macdonald & M P Taylor, "undated". "Exchange Rates, Policy Convergence And The European Monetary System," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 020, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Exchange Rates, Policy Convergence and the European Monetary System," CEPR Discussion Papers 444, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992.
"Target Zones and Realignments,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-536, June.
- Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990. "Target Zones and Realignments," CEPR Discussion Papers 398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Ball, Clifford A. & Roma, Antonio, 1993. "A jump diffusion model for the European monetary system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 475-492, October.
- Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
- Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-1035, September.
- Fisher, Eric O'N & Park, Joon Y, 1991. "Testing Purchasing Power Parity under the Null Hypothesis of Co-integration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1476-1484, November.
- Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "The width of the band and exchange rate mean-reversion: some further ERM-based results," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 411-428.
- Kari Heimonen, 1999. "Stationarity of the European real exchange rates-evidence from panel data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 673-677.
- Amato, Amedeo & Tronzano, Marco, 2000. "Fiscal policy, debt management and exchange rate credibility: Lessons from the recent Italian experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 921-943, June.
- F. De Jong & F. C. Drost & B. J. M. Werker, 2001. "A Jump‐diffusion Model for Exchange Rates in a Target Zone," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 55(3), pages 270-300, November.
- Fung, Hung-Gay & Lo, Wai-Chung, 1992. "Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 553-570, November.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Michael Frömmel & Torsten Schmidt, 2006. "Bank Lending and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," RWI Discussion Papers 0042, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
- Frommel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005.
"Markov switching regimes in a monetary exchange rate model,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 485-502, May.
- Michael Froemmel & Ronald Macdonald & Lukas Menkhoff, 2004. "Markov Switching Regimes In A Monetary Exchange Rate Model," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 119, Royal Economic Society.
- Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2013.
"Is exchange rate – Customer order flow relationship linear? Evidence from the Hungarian FX market,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 20-35.
- Yuliya Lovcha & Alejandro Perez-Laborda, 2010. "Is exchange rate – customer order flow relationship linear? Evidence from the Hungarian FX market," MNB Working Papers 2010/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
- Frömmel, Michael & Schmidt, Torsten, 2006.
"Bank Lending and Asset Prices in the Euro Area,"
Hannover Economic Papers (HEP)
dp-342, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Frömmel, Michael & Schmidt, Torsten, 2006. "Bank Lending and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," RWI Discussion Papers 42, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
- repec:zbw:rwidps:0042 is not listed on IDEAS
- Miller, J. Isaac, 2011.
"Testing the bounds: Empirical behavior of target zone fundamentals,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1782-1792, July.
- J. Isaac Miller, 2008. "Testing the Bounds: Empirical Behavior of Target Zone Fundamentals," Working Papers 0803, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 15 Apr 2009.
- Arcand, Jean-Louis & Kumar, Shekhar Hari & Hongler, Max-Olivier & Rinaldo, Daniele, 2023.
"Can one hear the shape of a target zone?,"
Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
- Jean-Louis Arcand & Max-Olivier Hongler & Shekhar Hari Kumar & Daniele Rinaldo, 2020. "Can one hear the shape of a target zone?," Papers 2002.00948, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
- Mr. Bassem M Kamar & Jean-Etienne Carlotti & Mr. Russell C Krueger, 2009. "Establishing Conversion Values for New Currency Unions: Method and Application to the planned Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 2009/184, International Monetary Fund.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Marie Bessec, 2000. "Mean-Reversion versus PPP Adjustment: The Two Regimes of Exchange Rate Dynamics Under the EMS, 1979-1998," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1305, Econometric Society.
- Gomez-Puig, Marta & Montalvo, JoseG., 1997. "A new indicator to assess the credibility of the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1511-1535, August.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Hung-Gay Fung & Kon S. Lai & Wai-Chung Lo, 1995. "Purchasing power parity under the European Monetary System," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 179-189, April.
- Lo, C.F. & Hui, C.H. & Fong, T. & Chu, S.W., 2015.
"A quasi-bounded target zone model — Theory and application to Hong Kong dollar,"
International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-17.
- C. F. Lo & C. H. Hui & S. W. Chu & T. Fong, 2012. "A Quasi-Bounded Target Zone Model - Theory and Application to Hong Kong Dollar," Working Papers 282012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Po-Hon Chau, 2017. "Can Exchange Rate Dynamics in Krugman¡¯s Target-zone Model be Directly Tested?Abstract: Despite Krugman's (1991) model being a benchmark for modelling target zones, empirical support has been sparse d," Working Papers 032017, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Hui, Cho-Hoi & Lo, Chi-Fai & Fong, Tom Pak-Wing, 2016. "Swiss franc's one-sided target zone during 2011–2015," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 54-67.
- Peter P. Carr & Zura Kakushadze, 2017.
"FX options in target zones,"
Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 1477-1486, October.
- Peter Carr & Zura Kakushadze, 2015. "FX Options in Target Zone," Papers 1512.01527, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
- Dahlquist, Magnus & Gray, Stephen F., 2000. "Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 399-419, April.
- C. H. Hui & C. F. Lo & T. Fong, 2015. "A Quasi-Bounded Model for Swiss Franc's One-Sided Target Zone During 2011-2015," Working Papers 152015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Patrick Artus, 1992. "Passage à l'union économique et monétaire en Europe : effets sur la croissance et les politiques budgétaires," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 123-137.
- Mundaca, Gabriela, 2003. "A Drift of the "Drift Adjustment Method"," Memorandum 16/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Gilles Dufrenot & Laurent Mathieu & Valerie Mignon & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2006.
"Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates: some evidence from non-linear cointegration,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 203-229.
- G. Dufrenot & L. Mathieu & V. Mignon, & A. Peguin-Feissolle, 2002. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates : some evidence from nonlinear cointegration," THEMA Working Papers 2002-29, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Gilles Dufrénot & Laurent Mathieu & Valérie Mignon & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2006. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates: some evidence from non-linear cointegration," Post-Print halshs-00256876, HAL.
- Gilles DUFRENOT & Laurent MATHIEU & Val=E9rie MIGNON & Anne PEGUIN-FEISSOLE, 2003. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchanges rates: some evidence from nonlinear cointegration," International Finance 0309003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Urban J. Jermann & Bin Wei & Vivian Z. Yue, 2022.
"The Two‐Pillar Policy for the RMB,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3093-3140, December.
- Urban J. Jermann & Bin Wei & Vivian Z. Yue, 2019. "The Two-Pillar Policy for the RMB," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2019-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Rangvid, Jesper & Sorensen, Carsten, 2001. "Determinants of the implied shadow exchange rates from a target zone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1665-1696, October.
- Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2005.
"Assessing the credibility of a target zone: evidence from the EMS,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(19), pages 2265-2287.
- Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, "undated". "Assessing the credibility of a target zone: Evidence from the EMS," Working Papers 2001-04, FEDEA.
- Clifford Ball & Antonio Roma, 1998. "Detecting mean reversion within reflecting barriers: application to the European Exchange Rate Mechanism," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15.
- António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2013.
"Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey Of The Literature,"
Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 247-268, April.
- António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2010. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey of the Literature," GEMF Working Papers 2010-14, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
- Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998.
"Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
- Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1996. "Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bekaert, G.R.J. & Gray, S.F., 1997. "Target zones and exchange rates : An empirical investigation," Other publications TiSEM 401f533c-6e91-49dd-9b04-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Bekaert, G.R.J. & Gray, S.F., 1997. "Target zones and exchange rates : An empirical investigation," Discussion Paper 1997-22, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Dumas, Bernard & Peter Jennergren, L. & Naslund, Bertil, 1995.
"Realignment risk and currency option pricing in target zones,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1523-1544, October.
- Bernard Dumas & Lars Peter Jennergren & Bertil Näslund, 1992. "Realignment risk and currency option pricing in target zones," Working Papers hal-00611598, HAL.
- Bernard Dumas & Peter Jennergren & Bertil Näslund, 1993. "Realignment risk and currency option pricing in target zones," Working Papers hal-00610767, HAL.
- Bernard Dumas & L. Peter Jennergren & Bertil Naslund, 1993. "Realignment Risk and Currency Option Pricing in Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 4458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:20:y:2003:i:1:p:141-164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.