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Fundamentals and devaluation expectations in target zones: Some new evidence from the ERM

  • Pierre Siklos
  • Rod Tarajos

The credibility of exchange rate target zones for four EMS countries for the period March 1979-September 1992 is examined. Existing methods by Svensson, Edin and Vredin, typically applied to data from the Nordic countries, are considered. On balance, the method suggested by Edin and Vredin provides somewhat better estimates of devaluation probabilities than either of Svensson's methods. While all methods produce reasonably good estimates of the expected size of devaluations, they did not predict the September 1992 EMS crisis. However, we find that electoral and other institutional variables improve estimates of devaluation expectations. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1996

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 7 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 35-59

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:7:y:1996:i:1:p:35-59
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  1. Rose, A.K. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," Papers 542, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Rose, A.K. & Svensson, L.E., 1991. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: the FF/DM Exchange Rate during the EMS," Papers 485, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  3. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
  4. Dumas, Bernard J & Svensson, Lars E O, 1992. "How Long Do Unilateral Target Zones Last?," CEPR Discussion Papers 645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  6. Minford, Patrick, 1993. "The Political Economy of the Exchange Rate Mechanism," CEPR Discussion Papers 774, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Svensson, L.E., 1990. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," Papers 475, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  8. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "Fixed exchange rates as a means to price stability: What have we learned?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 447-468, April.
  9. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  10. Donald J. Mathieson & Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones," IMF Working Papers 91/15, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-75, January.
  12. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
  13. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
  14. Krugman, Paul & Miller, Marcus, 1992. "Why Have a Target Zone?," CEPR Discussion Papers 718, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Bartolini, Leonardo & Bodnar, Gordon M., 1992. "Target zones and forward rates in a model with repeated realignments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 373-408, December.
  16. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "The Determinants of Realignment Expectations Under the EMS: Some Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 4291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Christopher J. Neely, 1994. "Realignment of target zone exchange rate systems: what do we know?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 23-34.
  18. Francesco Caramazza, 1993. "French-German Interest Rate Differentials and Time-Varying Realignment Risk," IMF Working Papers 93/1, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," Papers 469, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  20. Paul Krugman & Julio Rotemberg, 1990. "Target Zones with Limited Reserves," NBER Working Papers 3418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Francesco Caramazza, 1993. "French-German Interest Rate Differentials and Time-Varying Realignment Risk," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 567-583, September.
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