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Fundamentals and devaluation expectations in target zones: Some new evidence from the ERM

  • Pierre Siklos
  • Rod Tarajos

The credibility of exchange rate target zones for four EMS countries for the period March 1979-September 1992 is examined. Existing methods by Svensson, Edin and Vredin, typically applied to data from the Nordic countries, are considered. On balance, the method suggested by Edin and Vredin provides somewhat better estimates of devaluation probabilities than either of Svensson's methods. While all methods produce reasonably good estimates of the expected size of devaluations, they did not predict the September 1992 EMS crisis. However, we find that electoral and other institutional variables improve estimates of devaluation expectations. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1996

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF01886128
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 7 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 35-59

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:7:y:1996:i:1:p:35-59
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  1. Rose, Andrew K & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 552, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1992. "Why Exchange Rate Bands? Monetary Independence in Spite of Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Krugman, Paul & Miller, Marcus, 1993. "Why have a target zone?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 279-314, June.
  4. Edin, P.A. & Vredin, A., 1991. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Papers 1991g, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  5. Paul Krugman & Julio Rotemberg, 1990. "Target Zones with Limited Reserves," NBER Working Papers 3418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1990. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," NBER Working Papers 3394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Minford, Patrick, 1993. "The Political Economy of the Exchange Rate Mechanism," CEPR Discussion Papers 774, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Rose, Andrew K & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," CEPR Discussion Papers 852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Bartolini, Leonardo & Bodnar, Gordon M., 1992. "Target zones and forward rates in a model with repeated realignments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 373-408, December.
  10. Francesco Caramazza, 1993. "French-German Interest Rate Differentials and Time-Varying Realignment Risk," IMF Working Papers 93/1, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Bennett T. McCallum, 1992. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Fixed Exchange Rates as a Means to Price Stability: What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 872, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Francesco Caramazza, 1993. "French-German Interest Rate Differentials and Time-Varying Realignment Risk," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 567-583, September.
  14. Dumas, Bernard & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "How long do unilateral target zones last?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 467-481, May.
  15. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1990. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," NBER Working Papers 3466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
  17. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
  18. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  19. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 51-144.
  20. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "The Determinants of Realignment Expectations Under the EMS: Some Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 4291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Christopher J. Neely, 1994. "Realignment of target zone exchange rate systems: what do we know?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 23-34.
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