IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/14657.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sterling in crisis: 1964-1967

Author

Listed:
  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Ronald MacDonald
  • Michael J. Oliver

Abstract

We provide the first econometric study of foreign exchange market intervention for the UK during the sterling crises from 1964-1967. We use daily data on spot and forward dollar/sterling exchange rates and reserve movements which allows a more precise description of the loss of credibility during four currency crises. Reserve losses are consistent with exchange rate crises. External assistance given to sterling throughout this period shored up the reserves and allowed the sterling peg to be maintained.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bordo & Ronald MacDonald & Michael J. Oliver, 2009. "Sterling in crisis: 1964-1967," NBER Working Papers 14657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14657
    Note: ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14657.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grubel, Herbert G, 1971. "The Demand for International Reserves: A Critical Review of the Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1148-1166, December.
    2. Clark, Peter B, 1970. "Optimum International Reserves and the Speed of Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 356-376, March-Apr.
    3. N/A, 1964. "The Economic Situation," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 30(1), pages 4-29, November.
    4. Paul Hallwood, C. & MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2000. "Realignment expectations and the US dollar, 1890-1897: Was there a 'Peso problem'?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 605-620, December.
    5. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "The Demand for International Reserves and Monetary Equilibrium: Some Evidence from Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 495-500, August.
    6. James Boughton, 2001. "Northwest of Suez: The 1956 Crisis and the IMF," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 1-1.
    7. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June.
    9. Sir Alec Cairncross & Barry Eichengreen, 2003. "Sterling in Decline," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-0-230-59630-6.
    10. Michael D. Bordo & Owen Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2007. "The historical origins of US exchange market intervention policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 109-132.
    11. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 52-82.
    12. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1984. "Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 208-217, May.
    13. Klug, Adam & Smith, Gregor W., 1999. "Suez and Sterling, 1956," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 181-203, July.
    14. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1993. "Assessing target zone credibility : Mean reversion and devaluation expectations in the ERM, 1979-1992," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 763-793, May.
    15. Michael D. Bordo, 1993. "The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: A Historical Overview," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 3-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Michael Bordo & Anna Schwartz, 1996. "Why clashes between internal and external stability goals end in currency crises, 1797–1994," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 437-468, March.
    17. Roger Middleton, 1996. "GOVERNMENT VERSUS the MARKET," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 313.
    18. Mr. Francesco Caramazza, 1993. "French-German Interest Rate Differentials and Time-Varying Realignment Risk," IMF Working Papers 1993/001, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    20. N/A, 1964. "The Economic Situation," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 28(1), pages 4-15, May.
    21. Pierre Siklos & Rod Tarajos, 1996. "Fundamentals and devaluation expectations in target zones: Some new evidence from the ERM," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 35-59, January.
    22. Francesco Caramazza, 1993. "French-German Interest Rate Differentials and Time-Varying Realignment Risk," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 567-583, September.
    23. Canzoneri,Matthew & Ethier,Wilfred & Grilli,Vittorio (ed.), 1996. "The New Transatlantic Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521562058.
    24. Scott Newton, 2009. "The two sterling crises of 1964 and the decision not to devalue1," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 62(1), pages 73-98, February.
    25. N/A, 1964. "The Economic Situation," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 29(1), pages 4-25, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leontyeva, Elena (Леонтьева, Елена) & Narkevich, Sergey (Наркевич, Сергей), 2015. "Optimal Practice of Creation and Management of Gold Reserves [Оптимальная Практика Создания И Управления Золотовалютными Резервами]," Published Papers mak12, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Michael Bordo & Eric Monnet & Alain Naef, 2017. "The Gold Pool (1961-1968) and the Fall of the Bretton Woods System. Lessons for Central Bank Cooperation," NBER Working Papers 24016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. David, Géraldine & Li, Yuexin & Oosterlinck, Kim & Renneboog, Luc, 2021. "Art in Times of Crisis," Discussion Paper 2021-026, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Scharpf, Fritz W., 2018. "International monetary regimes and the German model," MPIfG Discussion Paper 18/1, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    5. Rockoff, Hugh & White, Eugene N., 2012. "Monetary Regimes and Policy on a Global Scale: The Oeuvre of Michael D. Bordo," MPRA Paper 49672, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2013.
    6. Oosterlinck, Kim & Accominotti, Olivier & BRIERE, Marie & Burietz, Aurore & Szafarz, Ariane, 2020. "Did Globalization Kill Contagion?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Li, Yuexin, 2021. "Pricing art: Returns, trust, and crises," Other publications TiSEM 8832c172-83dd-4ed9-8215-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peria, Maria Soledad Martinez, 1999. "A regime - switching approach to studying speculative attacks : focus on European Monetary System crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2132, The World Bank.
    2. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2017. "The Credibility of a Soft Pegged Exchange Rate in Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from a Panel Data Study," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 18(1), pages 29-51, May.
    3. David Fernando López Angarita, 2006. "Nivel de reservas internacionales y riesgo cambiario en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 8(15), pages 117-159, July-Dece.
    4. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
    5. Peter Tillmann, 2003. "The Regime‐Dependent Determination of Credibility: A New Look at European Interest Rate Differentials," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(4), pages 409-431, November.
    6. Daniëls, Tijmen R. & Jager, Henk & Klaassen, Franc, 2011. "Currency crises with the threat of an interest rate defence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 14-24, September.
    7. Olivier Jeanne, 1996. "Les modèles de crise de change : un essai de synthèse en relation avec la crise du franc de 1992-1993," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 147-162.
    8. Tronzano, Marco & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Target zone credibility and economic fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 791-807, July.
    9. Ulf Söderström & Alexis Stenfors, 1995. "Explaining devaluation expectations in the EMS," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 63-81, Autumn.
    10. Axel A. Weber, 1998. "Sources of Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 25, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    11. David Fernando LOPEZ ANGARITA, 2006. "Nivel óptimo de Reservas Internacionales y crisis cambiaria en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 3273, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    12. M. Araceli Rodríguez López, "undated". "Variables fundamentales o ataques "Self-fulfilling"? Una explicación a las crisis de credibilidad de la peseta espanola," Studies on the Spanish Economy 90, FEDEA.
    13. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Bodea, Cristina, 2015. "Fixed exchange rates with escape clauses: The political determinants of the European Monetary System realignments," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 25-40.
    15. Michael D. Bordo & Marc Flandreau, 2003. "Core, Periphery, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Globalization," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 417-472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Inez Sílvia Batista Castro & José Carlos de Lacerda Leite, 2003. "Estimando Probabilidades de Ocorrência de Crises Cambiais no Brasil," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] c05, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    17. Elias Belessakos & Michael Papaioannou, 1996. "Simple credibility tests of the ERM bands for the pound sterling and the Italian lira," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 219-236, July.
    18. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    19. Marie Bessec, 2000. "Mean-Reversion versus PPP Adjustment: The Two Regimes of Exchange Rate Dynamics Under the EMS, 1979-1998," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1305, Econometric Society.
    20. Ayala, Alfonso, 2011. "Una introducción a los modelos de crisis financieras [A introduction to models financial crisis]," MPRA Paper 42411, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14657. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.