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EMS Exchange Rates


  • Fred G M C Nieuwland
  • Willem F C Verschoor
  • Christian C P Wolff


In this article we study different time-series processes that may describe EMS exchange rate patterns. We conclude that conditional heteroskedasticity and discontinuous time paths are prominent features of EMS exchange rates. A combined jump- diffusion-ARCH model can capture these features simultaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • Fred G M C Nieuwland & Willem F C Verschoor & Christian C P Wolff, 1990. "EMS Exchange Rates," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0002, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprfm:0002

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mali J. Edison & Linda S. Kole, 1995. "European monetary arrangements: Implications for the dollar, exchange rate variability and credibility," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 1(1), pages 61-86.
    2. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1991. "Recent Developments in Modeling Volatility in Financial Data," Papers 9168, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
    3. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2009. "Exchange Rate Mean Reversion within a Target Zone: Evidence from a Country on the Periphery of the ERM," GEMF Working Papers 2009-15, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    4. Neely, Christopher J., 1999. "Target zones and conditional volatility: The role of realignments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 177-192, April.
    5. Michael J. Dueker, 1995. "Compound volatility processes in EMS exchange rates," Working Papers 1994-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2006. "New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks," Working Papers in Economics 159, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    7. Alper Ozun & Erman Erbaykal, 2009. "Detecting risk transmission from futures to spot markets without data stationarity: Evidence from Turkey's markets," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 365-376, August.
    8. N. T. Laopodis, 2003. "Stochastic behaviour of Deutsche mark exchange rates within EMS," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 665-676.
    9. Josh Stillwagon, 2013. "Rethinking What Survey Data has to Say about the Role of Risk and Irrationality in Currency Markets," Working Papers 1314, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    10. Benoît Cœuré & Antoine Magnier, 1996. "Crédibilité et fondamentaux macro-économiques au sein du SME : un examen empirique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 113-146.
    11. S. Zhou, 2003. "Evidence on the stationarity of ERM exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 231-233.
    12. Lundgren, Jens & Hellström, Jörgen & Rudholm, Niklas, 2008. "Multinational Electricity Market Integration and Electricity Price Dynamics," HUI Working Papers 16, HUI Research.
    13. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo, 2008. "A Note on Estimating Realignment Probabilities -- A First-Passage-Time Approach," Working Papers 0809, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    14. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E & Werker, Bas J M, 1998. "Estimation and Testing in Models Containing Both Jump and Conditional Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 237-243, April.


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