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Evidence on the stationarity of ERM exchange rates

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  • S. Zhou

Abstract

This article applies standard unit root tests to the spot and forward exchange rates of four core members of the European Monetary System participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). In contrast to the findings of most previous studies, the results show strong evidence of stationarity for the ERM rates, for the period when there were no significant realignments in the rates.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Zhou, 2003. "Evidence on the stationarity of ERM exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 231-233.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:4:p:231-233
    DOI: 10.1080/1350485022000044084
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fred G M C Nieuwland & Willem F C Verschoor & Christian C P Wolff, 1990. "EMS Exchange Rates," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0002, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-181, March.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    7. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-280, July.
    9. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    10. Norrbin, S.C., 1993. "Bivariate Cointegration Among European Monetary System Exchange Rates," Working Papers 1993_07_06, Department of Economics, Florida State University.
    11. Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "The width of the band and exchange rate mean-reversion: some further ERM-based results," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 411-428.
    12. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
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