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Unit Root Tests and the Burden of Proof

Author

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  • Robert A. Amano

    (Bank of Canada)

  • Simon van Norden

    (Bank of Canada)

Abstract

Simulation evidence is presented on the finite sample properties of two tests for stationarity recently proposed by Kwiatkowski, Phillips and Schmidt (1991) and Park (1990). Unlike earlier unit-root tests, these test the null of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root, thereby reversing the usual burden of proof. We also examine the consequenes of using the Kwiatkowski, Phillips and Schmidt test in conjuction with a standard unit-root test. These results suggest that the frequency of incorrect conclusions may be decreased relative to the application of only standard unit-root tests. Also, such a joint testing procedure may in some cases permit researchers to be more confident about their tests' results.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Unit Root Tests and the Burden of Proof," Econometrics 9502005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9502005
    Note: 20 pages, Postscript, includes tables. File compressed in a single Info-zip archive, then uuencoded.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Jean-François Fillion, 1996. "L'endettement du Canada et ses effets sur les taux d'interet reels de long term," Staff Working Papers 96-14, Bank of Canada.
    4. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.
    5. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis & Sanso-i-Rossello, Andreu & Ortuno, Manuel Artis, 2001. "Unit root and stationarity tests' wedding," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 1-8, January.
    6. Tang, Chor Foon, 2010. "The determinants of health expenditure in Malaysia: A time series analysis," MPRA Paper 24356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Tang, Chor Foon & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "Revisiting the Electricity Consumption-Growth Nexus for Portugal: Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis," MPRA Paper 28393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jaromír Hurník & David Navrátil, 2005. "Labor-Market Performance and Macroeconomic Policy: Time-Varying NAIRU in the Czech Republic (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(1-2), pages 25-40, January.
    9. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.
    10. Schlitzer, Giuseppe, 1995. "Testing the stationarity of economic time series: further Monte Carlo evidence," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 125-144, June.
    11. Gauthier Tshiswaka-Kashalala, 2006. "Is Fiscal Policy Sustainable in South Africa? An Application of the Econometric Approach," Working Papers 200614, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Trofimov, Ivan D. & Md. Aris, Nazaria & Bin Rosli, Muhammad K. F., 2018. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Labour Share of Income: Evidence from OECD Economies," MPRA Paper 85597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    14. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2007. "The KPSS test with two structural breaks," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 105-127, June.
    15. Jean-François Fillion, "undated". "L'endettement du secteur prive au Canada: un examen macroeconomique," Staff Working Papers 94-7, Bank of Canada.
    16. Jean-Francois Fillion, 1995. "L'endettement du secteur prive au Canada: un examen macroeconomique," Macroeconomics 9502006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Denise Côté & Doug Hostland, 1996. "An Econometric Examination of the Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada," Staff Working Papers 96-7, Bank of Canada.
    18. Tang, Chor Foon & Lai, Yew Wah, 2011. "The Stability of Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons," MPRA Paper 27962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Gabriel, Vasco J., 2003. "Cointegration and the joint confirmation hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 17-25, January.
    20. Eriksson , Åsa, 2004. "Testing Structural Hypotheses on Cointegration Vectors: A Monte Carlo Study," Working Papers 2004:29, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    21. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Haouas, Ilham, 2017. "Is the tourism-economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top ten tourist destinations," MPRA Paper 82713, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Nov 2017.
    22. Ivan D. TROFIMOV & Nazaria Md. ARIS & Muhammad Khairil Firdaus Bin ROSLI, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the labour share of income: Evidence from OECD economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(616), A), pages 25-48, Autumn.
    23. Tony Wirjanto, 2004. "Exploring consumption-based asset pricing model with stochastic-trend forcing processes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(14), pages 1591-1597.
    24. Amano, Robert A., 1998. "On the Optimal Seigniorage Hypothesis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 295-308, April.
    25. Razvan Pascalau, 2010. "Unit root tests with smooth breaks: an application to the Nelson-Plosser data set," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(6), pages 565-570.

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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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