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L'endettement du secteur prive au Canada: un examen macroeconomique


  • Jean-Francois Fillion

    (Banque du Canada)


Cette etude examine l'hypothese du surendettement du secteur prive, selon laquelle les menages et les entreprises se trouvent en certaines circonstances surendettes et decident, pour cette raison, de reduire leurs dettes en diminuant leurs depenses. Nous tentons de determiner si cette hypothese peut contribuer a expliquer la faiblesse de la croissance du credit et l'atonie de la recente reprise economique au Canada. Nous examinons l'hypothese du surendettement a l'aide de trois approches. La premiere approche vise a verifier l'existence de relations de cointegration entre les ratios d'endettement effectifs des menages et des entreprises et les variables macroeconomiques (et demographiques) qui determinent les ratios d'endettement de long terme. Les deux autres approches consistent a verifier si les ecarts entre l'endettement effectif et l'endettement de long terme des menages et des entreprises ont des effets significatifs sur leur demande de credit, d'une part, et sur leurs depenses, d'autre part. De facon generale,les resultats des tests de cointegration bases sur les erreurs d'estimation des equations de long terme ne sont pas tres concluants, alors que les resultats obtenus a l'aide des deux autres approches sont plutot favorables a l'hypothese du surendettement. Selon les coefficients estimes a l'aide des modeles indicateurs, le surendettement des menages et des entreprises aurait pu contribuer a limiter de facon significative le taux de croissance des depenses de consommation et celui des depenses d'investissement en 1991 et 1992. Le surendettement du secteur prive pourrait donc expliquer en partie le peu de vigueur de la reprise economique.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Francois Fillion, 1995. "L'endettement du secteur prive au Canada: un examen macroeconomique," Macroeconomics 9502006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9502006
    Note: 48 printed pages, compressed PostScript file. Other recent Bank of Canada working papers are listed on the last page of this report. Bank of Canada 94-7

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics


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