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Regional Convergence and Common, Stochastic Long-run Trends: A Re-examination of the US Regional Data

The paper utilizes modern econometric techniques organized around I(1) and cointegration analysis to examine the number of common, stochastic long-run trends in regional incomes and assess the hypothesis of regional convergence for the US over the period 1929-1997. Time series evidence is conflicting but tends to indicate the presence of too many common, stochastic, long-run trends, thus providing no support for the convergence hypothesis. L'article emploie des techniques econometriques recentes basees sur des analyses I(1) et cointegree afin d'examiner le nombre de tendances communes, stochastiques a long terme des revenus regionaux et d'evaluer l'hypothese qui avance la notion de la convergence regionale aux Etats-Unis sur la periode qui va de 1929 a 1997. Des preuves presentees en serie temporelle s'averent contradictoires mais semblent indiquer la presence d'un nombre trop eleve de tendances communes, stochastiques a long terme, ce qui ne vient pas a l'appui de l'hypothese qui avance la notion de convergence. Dieser Aufsatz bedient sich moderner, okonometrischer Techniken, die um 1(1) angeordnet sind, sowie einer Ko-integrationsanalyse, um die Zahl der gewohnlichen, stochastisch langfristigen Tendenzen bei regionalen Einkommen zu untersuchen, und die Hypothese regionaler Konvergenz fur die Vereinigten Staaten im Zeitraum 1929-1997 zu beurteilen. Zeitserienbeweise widersprechen einander, zeigen jedoch meist ein Vorhandensein zu vieler gewohnlicher, stochasisch langfristiger Tendenzen an, und stellen somit keine Stu�tzung der Konvergenzhypothese dar.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Regional Studies.

Volume (Year): 35 (2001)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 689-696

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Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:35:y:2001:i:8:p:689-696
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  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  3. Canova, Fabio & Marcet, Albert, 1995. "The Poor Stay Poor: Non-Convergence Across Countries and Regions," CEPR Discussion Papers 1265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  15. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1993. "Convergence in International Output," Working papers 93-7, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  17. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  18. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
  19. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
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