IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stochastic Convergence amongst Mexican States


  • Josep Lluis Carrion-I-Silvestre
  • Vicente German-Soto


Carrion-i-Silvestre J. L. and GERMAN-SOTO V. (2007) Stochastic convergence amongst Mexican states, Regional Studies 41, 531-541. The paper investigates the convergence process experienced by the Mexican states in the period 1940-2001. The analysis indicates that misleading conclusions can be obtained if the presence of structural breaks is not taken into account when testing for the presence of (stochastic) convergence. Thus, after allowing for structural breaks evidence in favour of convergence, in terms of real per capita GDP, is found using both unit root and co-integration tests. Empirical evidence shows that economic convergence has changed over time with mixed effects, although changes were toward convergence in the majority of cases, consistent with stochastic convergence. Carrion-i-Silvestre J. L. et German-Soto V. (2007) La convergence stochastique parmi les etats au Mexique. Regional Studies 41, 531-541. Cet article cherche a examiner le processus de convergence aux etats mexicains entre 1940 et 2001. L'analyse laisse voir la possibilite de tirer des conclusions trompeuses si l'on ne tient pas compte de la presence des ruptures structurelles quand on fait des analyses pour determiner la presence de la convergence (stochastique). Ainsi, une fois tenu compte des ruptures structurelles, il s'avere des preuves en faveur de la convergence, en termes du PIB par tete reel, en employant a la fois des tests de racine unitaire et de cointegration. Des preuves empiriques montrent que la convergence economique a evolue dans le temps avec des effets mitiges, bien que l'evolution soit vers la convergence dans la plupart des cas, ce qui correspond a la convergence stochastique. Convergence stochastique Ruptures structurelles Racine unitaire Cointegration Changements de regime Carrion-i-Silvestre J. L. und German-Soto V. (2007) Stochastische Konvergenz in mexikanischen Staaten, Regional Studies 41, 531-541. In diesem Aufsatz untersuchen wir den Konvergenzprozess der mexikanischen Staaten im Zeitraum von 1940 bis 2001. Unsere Analyse zeigt, dass es zu irrefuhrenden Schlussfolgerungen fuhren kann, wenn bei der Uberprufung des Vorhandenseins einer (stochastischen) Konvergenz nicht das Vorhandensein struktureller Bruche berucksichtigt wird. Nach einer Berucksichtigung der strukturellen Bruche werden bei Einheitswurzeln- und Kointegrationstests Anzeichen fur eine Konvergenz hinsichtlich des realen Pro-Kopf-Bruttosozialprodukts gefunden. Die empirischen Belege weisen darauf hin, dass sich die wirtschaftliche Konvergenz im Laufe der Zeit geandert hat. Dies hat zu unterschiedlichen Auswirkungen gefuhrt, obwohl die Anderungen in den meisten Fallen zu einer Konvergenz tendierten und mit einer stochastischen Konvergenz ubereinstimmten. Stochastische Konvergenz Strukturelle Bruche Einheitswurzel Kointegration Regimeanderungen Carrion-i-Silvestre J. L. y German-Soto V. (2007) Convergencia estocastica en los estados mexicanos, Regional Studies 41, 531-541. En este articulo investigamos el proceso de convergencia experimentado por los estados mexicanos durante el periodo de 1940 a 2001. Nuestro analisis indica que si al comprobar la presencia de convergencia (estocastica) no se tiene en cuenta la presencia de recesos estructurales se puede llegar a conclusiones erroneas. Por tanto, despues de tener en cuenta los recesos estructurales, observamos pruebas a favor de la convergencia, en terminos de PIB real per capita, tanto si se usan tests de raices unitarias como de cointegracion. Las pruebas empiricas demuestran que con el tiempo la convergencia economica ha cambiado con efectos variados, aunque los cambios tendieron hacia la convergencia en la mayoria de los casos y concordaban con una convergencia estocastica. Convergencia estocastica Recesos estructurales Raiz unitaria Cointegracion Cambios de regimen

Suggested Citation

  • Josep Lluis Carrion-I-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2007. "Stochastic Convergence amongst Mexican States," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 531-541.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:41:y:2007:i:4:p:531-541 DOI: 10.1080/00343400601120221

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ciccone, Antonio & Hall, Robert E, 1996. "Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 54-70.
    2. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2003. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, pages 1-31.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    4. Alberto Dalmazzo & Guido de Blasio, 2005. "Where do human capital externalities end up?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 554, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, January.
    6. Daron Acemoglu, 1998. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, pages 1055-1089.
    7. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Directed Technical Change," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 781-809.
    8. Ciccone, Antonio & Hall, Robert E, 1996. "Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 54-70.
    9. Adsera, Alicia, 2000. "Sectoral spillovers and the price of land: a cost analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, pages 565-585.
    10. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2005. "The Last Word on the Wage Curve?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 421-450, July.
    11. Rauch James E., 1993. "Productivity Gains from Geographic Concentration of Human Capital: Evidence from the Cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 380-400, November.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & Joshua Angrist, 2001. "How Large are Human-Capital Externalities? Evidence from Compulsory-Schooling Laws," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 9-74 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Raul Ramos & Esteban Sanroma, 1998. "Regional structure of wages and external economies in Spain," ERSA conference papers ersa98p160, European Regional Science Association.
    14. Wagner, Alfred, 1891. "Marshall's Principles of Economics," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 5, pages 319-338.
    15. Lorenzo Serrano-Martínez, 1999. "Capital humano, estructura sectorial y crecimiento en las regiones españolas," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, pages 225-249.
    16. Hipolito Simon & Raul Ramos & Esteban Sanroma, 2006. "Collective bargaining and regional wage differences in Spain: an empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1749-1760.
    17. Giovanni Peri, "undated". "Human Capital and Productivity in US Cities," Working Papers 138, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    18. Raul Ramos & Esteban Sanroma, 1998. "Regional structure of wages and external economies in Spain," ERSA conference papers ersa98p160, European Regional Science Association.
    19. Theodore W. Schultz, 1960. "Capital Formation by Education," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68, pages 571-571.
    20. Daron Acemoglu, 1996. "A Microfoundation for Social Increasing Returns in Human Capital Accumulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(3), pages 779-804.
    21. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2009. "Panel data stochastic convergence analysis of the Mexican regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 303-327.
    2. Antonio Montanes & Lorena Olmos & Marcelo Reyes, 2015. "Convergence in Spanish provinces," ERSA conference papers ersa15p1188, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2010. "Stochastic convergence in the industrial sector of the Mexican states," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, pages 547-570.
    4. Johan Lyhagen & Johanna Rickne, 2014. "Income inequality between Chinese regions: newfound harmony or continued discord?," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 93-110.
    5. A. Montañés & L. Olmos, 2014. "Do the Spanish regions converge? A unit root analysis for the HDI of the Spanish regions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(34), pages 4218-4230, December.
    6. Maria Jesus Herrerias & Vicente Orts, 2011. "The driving forces behind China’s growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(1), pages 79-124, January.
    7. Montañés, Antonio & Olmos, Lorena & Reyes, Marcelo, 2016. "Does crisis affect convergence process? The case of the Spanish provinces," MPRA Paper 69543, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. René Cabral & André Mollick, 2012. "Mexico’s regional output convergence after NAFTA: a dynamic panel data analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, pages 877-895.
    9. Vicente German-Soto & Luis Gutiérrez Flores, 2010. "Time Series Tests of Structural Change among Innovation and Trade Liberalization in Mexico," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), pages 219-237.
    10. Johan Lyhagen & Johanna Rickne, 2014. "Income inequality between Chinese regions: newfound harmony or continued discord?," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 93-110.
    11. Brock, Gregory & German-Soto, Vicente, 2013. "Regional industrial growth in Mexico: Do human capital and infrastructure matter?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 228-242.
    12. Burcu Ozcan, 2014. "Does Income Converge among EU Member Countries following the Post-War Period? Evidence from the PANKPSS Test," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, pages 22-38.
    13. Wallace, Frederick & Chapa Cantú, Joana, 2015. "The Ejido System and Economic Growth of the Mexican States," MPRA Paper 62261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Juan Gabriel Brida & Juan Pereyra & Martín Puchet Anyul & Wiston Adrián Risso, 2011. "Regímenes de desempeño económico y dualismo estructural en la dinámica de las entidades federativas de México, 1970 - 2006," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1011, Department of Economics - dECON.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:41:y:2007:i:4:p:531-541. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.