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Stochastic Convergence amongst Mexican States

  • Josep Lluis Carrion-I-Silvestre
  • Vicente German-Soto

Carrion-i-Silvestre J. L. and GERMAN-SOTO V. (2007) Stochastic convergence amongst Mexican states, Regional Studies 41, 531-541. The paper investigates the convergence process experienced by the Mexican states in the period 1940-2001. The analysis indicates that misleading conclusions can be obtained if the presence of structural breaks is not taken into account when testing for the presence of (stochastic) convergence. Thus, after allowing for structural breaks evidence in favour of convergence, in terms of real per capita GDP, is found using both unit root and co-integration tests. Empirical evidence shows that economic convergence has changed over time with mixed effects, although changes were toward convergence in the majority of cases, consistent with stochastic convergence. Carrion-i-Silvestre J. L. et German-Soto V. (2007) La convergence stochastique parmi les etats au Mexique. Regional Studies 41, 531-541. Cet article cherche a examiner le processus de convergence aux etats mexicains entre 1940 et 2001. L'analyse laisse voir la possibilite de tirer des conclusions trompeuses si l'on ne tient pas compte de la presence des ruptures structurelles quand on fait des analyses pour determiner la presence de la convergence (stochastique). Ainsi, une fois tenu compte des ruptures structurelles, il s'avere des preuves en faveur de la convergence, en termes du PIB par tete reel, en employant a la fois des tests de racine unitaire et de cointegration. Des preuves empiriques montrent que la convergence economique a evolue dans le temps avec des effets mitiges, bien que l'evolution soit vers la convergence dans la plupart des cas, ce qui correspond a la convergence stochastique. Convergence stochastique Ruptures structurelles Racine unitaire Cointegration Changements de regime Carrion-i-Silvestre J. L. und German-Soto V. (2007) Stochastische Konvergenz in mexikanischen Staaten, Regional Studies 41, 531-541. In diesem Aufsatz untersuchen wir den Konvergenzprozess der mexikanischen Staaten im Zeitraum von 1940 bis 2001. Unsere Analyse zeigt, dass es zu irrefuhrenden Schlussfolgerungen fuhren kann, wenn bei der Uberprufung des Vorhandenseins einer (stochastischen) Konvergenz nicht das Vorhandensein struktureller Bruche berucksichtigt wird. Nach einer Berucksichtigung der strukturellen Bruche werden bei Einheitswurzeln- und Kointegrationstests Anzeichen fur eine Konvergenz hinsichtlich des realen Pro-Kopf-Bruttosozialprodukts gefunden. Die empirischen Belege weisen darauf hin, dass sich die wirtschaftliche Konvergenz im Laufe der Zeit geandert hat. Dies hat zu unterschiedlichen Auswirkungen gefuhrt, obwohl die Anderungen in den meisten Fallen zu einer Konvergenz tendierten und mit einer stochastischen Konvergenz ubereinstimmten. Stochastische Konvergenz Strukturelle Bruche Einheitswurzel Kointegration Regimeanderungen Carrion-i-Silvestre J. L. y German-Soto V. (2007) Convergencia estocastica en los estados mexicanos, Regional Studies 41, 531-541. En este articulo investigamos el proceso de convergencia experimentado por los estados mexicanos durante el periodo de 1940 a 2001. Nuestro analisis indica que si al comprobar la presencia de convergencia (estocastica) no se tiene en cuenta la presencia de recesos estructurales se puede llegar a conclusiones erroneas. Por tanto, despues de tener en cuenta los recesos estructurales, observamos pruebas a favor de la convergencia, en terminos de PIB real per capita, tanto si se usan tests de raices unitarias como de cointegracion. Las pruebas empiricas demuestran que con el tiempo la convergencia economica ha cambiado con efectos variados, aunque los cambios tendieron hacia la convergencia en la mayoria de los casos y concordaban con una convergencia estocastica. Convergencia estocastica Recesos estructurales Raiz unitaria Cointegracion Cambios de regimen

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Regional Studies.

Volume (Year): 41 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 531-541

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Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:41:y:2007:i:4:p:531-541
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