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Labor-Market Performance and Macroeconomic Policy: Time-Varying NAIRU in the Czech Republic (in English)

  • Jaromír Hurník

    ()

    (Czech National Bank, Prague)

  • David Navrátil

    ()

    (Èeská spoøitelna, Prague)

During the second half of the 1990s, the Czech economy experienced a sharp increase in the unemployment rate. The authors attempt to determine whether this was caused by structural changes, worsening labor-market performance, or by the changing business-cycle position. This has direct implications for both monetary and fiscal policy. The authors use NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) estimates using time-varying NAIRU. The estimates indicate that the NAIRU increased between 1996 and 2002 by approximately 1.5 percent. Estimated increases in the NAIRU can be associated with the worsening of labor-market efficiency.

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Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 55 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (January)
Pages: 25-40

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:55:y:2005:i:1-2:p:25-40
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  1. Wolfgang Franz, 2005. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 131-153, 05.
  2. Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Unit Root Tests and the Burden of Proof," Econometrics 9502005, EconWPA.
  3. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
  4. Vladimir Bezdek & Kamil Dybczak & Ales Krejdl, 2003. "Czech Fiscal Policy: Introductory Analysis," Working Papers 2003/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  5. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
  6. Rebecca L Driver & Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse, 2003. "The role of expectations in estimates of the NAIRU in the United States and the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 180, Bank of England.
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