Testing mean reversion in target-zone exchange rates
The aim of the paper is to assess to what extent European Monetary System (EMS) target zone exchange rates have been characterized by mean reverting behaviour. To this purpose, a new class of mean reversion tests is introduced. With respect to standard approaches, the proposed tests - which are based on the sample excursion of the exchange rate within the band - have a better ability to detect target-zone mean reverting dynamics. The empirical analysis of the exchange rates among the main EMS currencies shows that the degree of mean reversion is much higher than what has been reported in the literature, both before and after the target zone widening of 1993. Finally, the proposed tests have a wider range of applications since they originate a new approach to unit root testing.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 20 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995.
"Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate,"
NBER Working Papers
5346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
- Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: Some evidence from the ERM," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1493-1523, September.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Xiao, Zhijie, 1998.
" A Primer on Unit Root Testing,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 423-69, December.
- Giuseppe Cavaliere, 2003.
"Limited time series with a unit root,"
Quaderni di Dipartimento
1, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986.
"Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Tom Doan, . "PPUNIT: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Perron Unit Root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00160, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Yoosoon Chang & Joon Park, 2002. "On The Asymptotics Of Adf Tests For Unit Roots," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 431-447.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1995. "Testing for cointegration: Power versus frequency of observation -- another view," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 121-124, August.
- James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration,"
1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
- Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997.
"Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Charalambos Pattichis, 2002. "Mean reversion in target zones: a re-examination of some ERM exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1141-1145.
- J. Huston McCulloch, 1977. "The Austrian Theory of the Marginal Use And of Ordinal Marginal Utility," NBER Working Papers 0170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nicolau, Jo o, 2002. "Stationary Processes That Look Like Random Walks The Bounded Random Walk Process In Discrete And Continuous Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 99-118, February.
- Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "The width of the band and exchange rate mean-reversion: some further ERM-based results," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 411-428.
- Giuseppe Cavaliere, 2001. "Testing the unit root hypothesis using generalized range statistics," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 39.
- Otero, Jesus & Smith, Jeremy, 2000. "Testing for cointegration: power versus frequency of observation -- further Monte Carlo results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 5-9, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:20:p:2335-2347. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.