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Inflation Differentials and Excess Returns in the European Monetary System

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  • Peter J G Vlaar
  • Franz C Palm

Abstract

In this paper, the relationship between excess returns on foreign exchange investment and inflation differentials and a measure of volatility is investigated for the European Monetary System. A high inflation rate relative to Germany leads to a real appreciation relative to the D-mark, which might increase the probability of a parity adjustment. As a consequence, investors will demand a risk premium leading to a higher interest rate on the weak currency. The excess return remains on the weak currency as long as this currency is not devalued. If the currency is devalued however, the loss can be considerable, especially if the timing of the devaluation was not foreseen by the market. These two effects are modelled by means of a mixture of normal distributions with endogenized weights that depend on the inflation differential. As a measure of volatility, the conditional variance of excess returns is included as an explanatory variable in the model. Using weekly D-mark rates of the Belgian franc, the Dutch guilder, the French franc and the Italian lira, it is shown that high inflation differentials are accompanied by high expected excess returns, but also high risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter J G Vlaar & Franz C Palm, 1993. "Inflation Differentials and Excess Returns in the European Monetary System," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0038, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX..
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprfm:0038
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Giovannini, 1990. "European Monetary Reform: Progress and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 217-292.
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    Cited by:

    1. Young Wook Han, 2010. "The Effects of US Macroeconomic Surprises on the Intraday Movements of Foreign Exchange Rates: Cases of USD-EUR and USD-JPY Exchange Rates," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 375-396.
    2. Benoît Cœuré & Antoine Magnier, 1996. "Crédibilité et fondamentaux macro-économiques au sein du SME : un examen empirique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 113-146.

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    Keywords

    Excess Returns; Peso Problems; Endogenous Jumps;

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