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Why do Central Banks intervene secretly? preliminary evidence of the BoJ

  • Michel Beine
  • Oscar Bernal Diaz

This paper empirically investigates the main determinants of secret interventions in the foreign exchange (FX) market. Using the recent experience of the Bank of Japan, we estimate a model that explains the share of secret to reported interventions in the FX market. Two sets of determinants are clearly identified: the first is related to the probability of detection of the central bank orders by market participants; the second, to the central bank’s internal decision to opt for secrecy. Our estimations support the arguments of current microstructure theories that rationalize the use of secret interventions.

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Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series DULBEA Working Papers with number in.

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Date of creation: Mar 2005
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Publication status: Published by: DULBEA - Université Libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics
Handle: RePEc:dul:wpaper:05-09rs
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://difusion.ulb.ac.be

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  1. Stein, Jeremy C, 1989. "Cheap Talk and the Fed: A Theory of Imprecise Policy Announcements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 32-42, March.
  2. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
  3. Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "Government intervention in the foreign exchange market," Working Paper 0315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  4. Priscilla Chiu, 2003. "Transparency versus constructive ambiguity in foreign exchange intervention," BIS Working Papers 144, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention," NBER Working Papers 8356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 1-10.
  7. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Pascale Duran-Vigneron & Amina Lahrèche-Revil & Mignon, Valerie, 2004. "Burden Sharing and Exchange-Rate Misalignments within the Group of Twenty," Working Papers 2004-13, CEPII research center.
  8. Vitale, Paolo, 1999. "Sterilised central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 245-267, December.
  9. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Weller, Paul, 1992. "The Advantage to Hiding One's Hand: Speculation and Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 737, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2004. "Modeling the intensity of foreign exchange intervention activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 347-351, December.
  11. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez, 2003. "When Do Central Bank Interventions Influence Intra-Daily and Longer-Term Exchange Rate Movements?," NBER Working Papers 9875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sébastien & Palm, Franz C., 2009. "Central bank FOREX interventions assessed using realized moments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 112-127, February.
  13. Michel Beine & Agnes Bénassy-Quéré & Christelle Lecourt, 2002. "Central Bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: new evidence from FIGARCH estimations," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10445, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  14. Michel Beine & Christelle Lecourt, 2004. "Reported and secret interventions in the foreign exchange market," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10427, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  15. McFadden, Daniel L., 1984. "Econometric analysis of qualitative response models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1395-1457 Elsevier.
  16. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
  17. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
  18. repec:imf:imfpdp:9802 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "The case for foreign exchange intervention: the government as an active reserve manager," Working Papers 2004-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  20. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
  21. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December.
  22. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1990. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 16.
  23. Almekinders, Geert J. & Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W., 1996. "A friction model of daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve intervention," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1365-1380, September.
  24. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: Evidence from Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  25. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
  26. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x, June.
  27. Christopher J. Neely & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "Exchange rate intervention," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 107-108.
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